NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	113		Excitement	7.7 [317]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (MIL): +44.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	117		Comeback	102.1 [43]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (MIL): -6.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Parker	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.02	7	60%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.01	14	57%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.23,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	18	58%	0.16	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.09
Marcus Smart	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	14	59%	0.12	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Romeo Langford	0.03	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	69%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.08	-0.02	20	52%	0.09	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.45	0.45	0.10	0.35	0.01	4	100%	0.45	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.00	23	59%	0.41	2	-0.05	15	67%	-0.11
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	13	57%	0.08	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	10	39%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	57%	0.07	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.05
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.01	14	61%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.0	29.3	14.0	34.0	2.8	38.0	147.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +40.4%

BOS -1.7%

MIL +14.5%

MIL +6.3%

BOS -9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	14.1	14.5	110.8	117.0	110.8
season	14.9	13.7		112.2	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.7		109.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.4	14.6	12.4	18.0	14.5
MIL	14.8	16.7	12.9	12.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Parker	29	25	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.29	1	-5	6	14.3	14.5	-0.21	13.4	14.3	-0.87
Juancho Hernangomez	36	33	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.10	-3	-1	-2	12.9	15.3	-2.47	14.1	14.0	0.11
Payton Pritchard	64	61	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.40	14	-18	32	14.2	14.8	-0.61	14.6	13.2	1.43
Romeo Langford	52	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-4	4	15.3	13.6	1.65	14.1	14.0	0.09
Robert Williams III	80	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.59	3	-7	10	14.8	13.3	1.51	14.2	13.4	0.84
Jayson Tatum	83	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.30	-7	3	-10	14.9	12.5	2.44	13.8	15.0	-1.17
Marcus Smart	87	87	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.46	-13	9	-22	14.0	17.2	-3.21	13.9	14.8	-0.83
Jaylen Brown	79	78	-0.96	0.46	-1.42	-0.52	-15	11	-26	14.6	14.0	0.65	13.9	14.4	-0.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	78	78	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.43	19	-15	34	13.7	15.4	-1.74	15.3	11.7	3.54
Khris Middleton	75	76	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.35	21	-17	38	13.8	14.7	-0.84	14.7	13.7	1.08
Giannis Antetokounmpo	65	64	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.50	-1	5	-6	13.4	15.2	-1.77	14.8	13.9	0.82
Wesley Matthews	37	37	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.56	-4	8	-12	12.6	14.9	-2.35	15.0	14.2	0.80
George Hill	43	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	8	-12	14.7	13.6	1.05	13.8	15.0	-1.26
Donte DiVincenzo	31	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.20	13	-9	22	13.0	14.5	-1.52	15.7	13.9	1.83
Bobby Portis	43	47	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.08	0	4	-4	15.4	13.0	2.36	13.6	15.2	-1.64
DeMarcus Cousins	37	37	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	9	-14	15.1	13.4	1.68	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Grayson Allen	54	53	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.15	-4	8	-12	14.4	13.6	0.82	15.0	13.9	1.04
Pat Connaughton	37	40	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	0.01	-15	19	-34	14.9	13.6	1.29	12.1	16.0	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.41,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,1	91.5%
SAC 99, LAL 100	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.18,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,1	91.0%
PHI 88, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.28,0.3,0.15,0.25,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.23,1	89.9%