NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	115		Excitement	7.5 [353]		MVP	P.J. Washington (CHA): +54.6%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	54.0 [29]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -21.1%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Washington	0.55	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.3,0.55,0.55	0.14	0.40	-0.00	6	108%	0.55	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.04	0.05	15	68%	0.15	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
LaMelo Ball	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	59%	0.08	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Jalen McDaniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	13	44%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	15	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.04
Nick Richards	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	6	64%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Miles Bridges	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	14	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Gordon Hayward	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	10	26%	-0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.01	6	79%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	6	92%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	2	125%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	79%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	12	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	8	19%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	7	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.16	0.01	10	50%	-0.11	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.24,-0.14,-0.21	-0.21	-0.16	-0.08	-0.03	34	41%	-0.08	6	-0.13	3	67%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	25.5	14.7	27.5	1.8	33.2	131.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +49.9%

CHA +4.9%

DEN -14.5%

CHA +7.5%

CHA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DEN	NBA	CHA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	13.9	14.5	110.6	105.9	110.8
season	14.0	14.8		112.9	113.4
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.6	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.2	15.0	14.3	13.2	14.2
DEN	13.0	12.6	13.4	16.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	29	30	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.18	27	-19	46	13.7	14.4	-0.64	15.9	13.1	2.78
Terry Rozier	78	75	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-7	22	13.9	15.2	-1.29	13.7	14.4	-0.64
Jalen McDaniels	58	58	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-5	18	14.3	14.0	0.29	14.2	13.6	0.61
P.J. Washington	54	54	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-4	16	14.2	14.2	-0.03	14.3	13.4	0.87
Kelly Oubre Jr.	67	67	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	2	4	14.5	13.6	0.83	14.0	13.7	0.31
Nick Richards	6	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	10	-12	13.0	14.3	-1.26	11.8	14.0	-2.22
LaMelo Ball	57	54	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	9	-10	14.1	14.3	-0.17	13.5	14.4	-0.84
Mason Plumlee	46	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	16	-24	14.6	13.9	0.69	13.6	14.2	-0.61
Gordon Hayward	67	63	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.05	-8	16	-24	14.1	14.4	-0.30	13.6	14.4	-0.86
Miles Bridges	58	56	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.02	-14	22	-36	14.4	13.9	0.52	13.5	14.4	-0.92

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlatko Cancar	43	45	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.09	-1	-7	6	13.2	14.4	-1.26	13.2	14.9	-1.77
Bones Hyland	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-3	-2	15.2	13.3	1.90	13.0	14.7	-1.64
JaMychal Green	27	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.23	-10	2	-12	14.9	13.6	1.33	13.3	14.5	-1.20
Zeke Nnaji	34	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-3	-2	15.9	12.9	2.97	14.1	14.2	-0.15
Austin Rivers	45	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-4	0	14.9	13.1	1.80	13.8	14.4	-0.63
Monte Morris	59	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-4	0	13.2	15.0	-1.82	14.5	13.7	0.83
Facundo Campazzo	68	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-7	6	14.1	13.6	0.45	14.7	13.2	1.45
Nikola Jokic	74	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.49	2	-10	12	13.6	14.9	-1.33	14.5	13.3	1.20
Will Barton	70	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	-5	2	13.3	15.2	-1.90	14.7	13.0	1.64
Jeff Green	54	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	1	-10	13.1	14.9	-1.84	14.4	14.0	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.91,0.95,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.46,0.61,0.29,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 116, CHH 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.46,0.41,0.27,0	91.0%
LAL 96, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.84,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.66,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.15,0	90.5%
BOS 112, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.87,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.24,0.05,0	90.5%