NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	120		Excitement	10.2 [63]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +52.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	114		Comeback	19.9 [96]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -13.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.53	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.19,0.4,0.48,0.56,0.53	0.16	0.40	0.03	23	71%	0.71	6	-0.18	9	56%	-0.04
Monte Morris	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.00	10	48%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.10
JaMychal Green	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	6	62%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Facundo Campazzo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davon Reed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Will Barton	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	0.00	-0.10	0.04	18	53%	-0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.07	0.23	0.02	21	60%	0.42	3	-0.14	3	67%	0.02
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.01	11	79%	0.27	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.11	0.00	10	68%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	13	46%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	11	52%	0.06	6	-0.15	1	100%	0.02
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	12	59%	0.05	6	-0.17	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	25.5	14.5	25.8	0.8	33.3	2.5	16.2	143.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -12.3%

DEN +31.3%

NOP -29.2%

DEN +58.2%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	14.5	112.1	107.5	110.8
season	14.8	14.7		113.4	110.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		112.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	14.5	14.7	14.9	16.1	15.2	15.1
NOP	13.8	16.0	14.5	14.5	16.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	88	87	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	0	6	14.9	15.6	-0.64	14.6	15.8	-1.27
Will Barton	83	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-7	20	15.3	14.4	0.88	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Monte Morris	74	72	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	1	4	15.2	14.6	0.61	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Jeff Green	73	72	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	1	4	15.2	14.8	0.38	14.4	15.7	-1.29
Nikola Jokic	73	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	2	2	15.3	14.5	0.86	14.8	14.7	0.07
Davon Reed	18	17	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	3	0	14.3	15.2	-0.87	17.4	14.3	3.11
JaMychal Green	34	32	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	4	-2	14.5	15.3	-0.86	14.7	14.8	-0.07
Bones Hyland	33	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	4	-2	14.6	15.2	-0.61	15.6	14.5	1.12
Zeke Nnaji	15	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	14	-22	15.0	15.1	-0.07	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Facundo Campazzo	44	44	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.13	-2	8	-10	15.0	15.1	-0.06	15.2	14.5	0.65

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	46	49	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.05	2	-8	10	15.1	14.5	0.58	14.2	15.8	-1.61
Tomas Satoransky	11	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	13.6	14.9	-1.30	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Garrett Temple	23	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-6	6	15.3	14.7	0.70	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Kira Lewis Jr.	19	19	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-4	2	14.7	14.8	-0.14	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Willy Hernangomez	29	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-4	2	15.4	14.6	0.84	13.9	15.5	-1.58
Jonas Valanciunas	77	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-2	-2	14.6	15.4	-0.84	15.5	13.9	1.58
Josh Hart	83	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	1	-8	15.2	13.4	1.80	15.8	12.5	3.30
Herbert Jones	79	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	1	-8	14.3	16.3	-2.01	15.1	14.9	0.27
Devonte' Graham	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	-3	0	15.0	14.3	0.70	15.4	14.2	1.28
Brandon Ingram	87	88	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	0	-6	14.6	15.8	-1.27	14.9	15.6	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.49,0.61,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.68,0.78,0.95,0.84,0.46,0.45,0.21,0.05,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 111, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.96,0.54,0.69,0.37,0.22,0.08,0	88.2%
BKN 121, DEN 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.71,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.16,0.26,0	87.9%
DEN 121, OKC 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.32,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.37,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.68,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.1,0.01,0	87.9%