NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	10.9 [41]		MVP	Monte Morris (DEN): +67.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	113		Comeback	10.1 [101]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -18.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0.68	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68	0.08	0.58	-0.01	12	59%	0.68	0	0.00	5	100%	0.17
Michael Porter Jr.	0.40	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.29	0.14	0.03	16	90%	0.52	3	-0.12	9	100%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.24	0.02	0.21	-0.01	21	57%	0.34	4	-0.10	11	91%	0.03
Paul Millsap	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	10	65%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Bol Bol	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Troy Daniels	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	5	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	8	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08
PJ Dozier	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	4	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.09	0.37	-0.02	13	65%	0.56	3	-0.09	11	82%	0.03
Abdel Nader	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.13	0.00	6	108%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.16	0.01	14	59%	0.26	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.03
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	17	57%	0.23	5	-0.19	6	83%	-0.17
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.09	2	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	13	33%	-0.14	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	30.6	2.7	28.8	14.7	29.5	3.4	39.3	2.5	13.1	164.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.4%

OKC -3.4%

OKC -0.7%

DEN +21.0%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.6	15.0	14.2	112.0	105.6	109.6
season	15.0	14.3		112.0	108.8
opponent	14.5	14.5		107.6	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.9	14.7	14.6	12.6	15.8	14.6
OKC	12.9	14.7	16.7	16.9	12.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	89	87	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.18	25	-17	42	14.5	14.7	-0.20	15.4	13.2	2.16
Paul Millsap	70	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-3	14	14.6	14.4	0.20	15.0	15.1	-0.11
Monte Morris	69	69	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.10	20	-12	32	14.2	15.3	-1.11	15.9	13.3	2.59
Nikola Jokic	79	76	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-1	10	14.8	14.0	0.78	15.1	14.7	0.38
Jerami Grant	71	69	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	9	-10	14.4	14.9	-0.44	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Troy Daniels	20	21	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.15	0	8	-8	14.8	14.5	0.34	15.1	15.0	0.17
Torrey Craig	49	49	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.14	-1	9	-10	14.5	14.7	-0.19	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Bol Bol	7	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	16	-24	17.6	14.4	3.21	11.2	15.3	-4.06
Mason Plumlee	39	41	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.01	-10	18	-28	14.5	14.6	-0.10	14.8	15.1	-0.33
PJ Dozier	36	36	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.00	-13	21	-34	14.2	14.7	-0.53	14.6	15.2	-0.56

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hamidou Diallo	50	49	0.47	-0.97	1.44	-0.09	19	-27	46	14.2	15.8	-1.59	14.8	14.4	0.44
Nerlens Noel	47	47	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.17	8	-16	24	14.7	15.2	-0.55	15.0	14.3	0.68
Darius Bazley	47	46	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.23	-5	-3	-2	15.8	14.4	1.39	13.9	15.1	-1.15
Abdel Nader	26	27	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-8	8	15.3	14.9	0.34	13.6	14.9	-1.36
Danilo Gallinari	60	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-9	10	14.4	15.8	-1.39	15.1	13.9	1.15
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	75	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	1	-10	14.8	15.4	-0.57	14.9	13.8	1.12
Andre Roberson	20	19	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.07	-16	8	-24	15.7	14.9	0.85	13.6	14.8	-1.14
Chris Paul	79	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	0	-8	15.1	14.9	0.16	14.7	14.1	0.64
Luguentz Dort	72	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.26	-14	6	-20	15.2	14.5	0.69	14.6	14.5	0.07
Steven Adams	69	71	-0.94	0.44	-1.39	-0.42	-18	10	-28	15.3	14.4	0.91	14.3	15.2	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.32,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.37,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.68,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.22,0.06,0.02,0	91.6%
SEA 114, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.93,0.98,1,0.46,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.04,0	90.1%
BOS 102, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.92,0.54,0.39,0.14,0.16,0.01,0	89.4%