NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	120		Excitement	8.7 [173]		MVP	Daniel Gafford (WAS): +20.9%
Dallas Mavericks	114		Comeback	3.5 [208]		LVP	Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL): -9.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.10	0.01	7	87%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18	0.05	0.13	0.00	9	67%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Kyle Kuzma	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.12	0.01	14	67%	0.38	4	-0.20	5	100%	0.02
Montrezl Harrell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Raul Neto	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	8	72%	0.17	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.05
Corey Kispert	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	0.00	3	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Bradley Beal	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.05	0.16	-0.08	0.02	14	76%	0.15	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Deni Avdija	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	70%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	5	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	7	87%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.03	7	47%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,-0.03,0,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	25	58%	0.15	4	-0.12	7	57%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	12	38%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	12	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	25.6	14.7	27.5	2.5	30.4	131.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +56.8%

WAS +12.0%

WAS +24.3%

DAL -36.7%

DAL -6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DAL	NBA	WAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.0	14.5	125.0	116.3	110.8
season	14.9	15.6		109.8	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.4		109.2	113.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.1	14.0	14.4	15.2	14.6
DAL	14.3	14.8	15.0	16.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	76	78	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-9	22	14.2	16.2	-2.03	14.9	15.7	-0.89
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	65	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-7	18	13.9	16.2	-2.27	14.3	16.5	-2.13
Daniel Gafford	56	60	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-8	20	14.1	15.4	-1.29	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Kyle Kuzma	71	73	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-3	10	14.2	15.8	-1.61	15.2	14.6	0.59
Aaron Holiday	42	43	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	-5	14	13.8	15.3	-1.57	15.7	14.5	1.13
Raul Neto	45	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	7	-10	15.5	13.9	1.55	15.3	14.8	0.49
Deni Avdija	37	37	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	9	-14	15.4	14.2	1.19	13.6	15.9	-2.28
Montrezl Harrell	39	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	10	-16	15.8	13.9	1.94	16.5	14.1	2.41
Corey Kispert	23	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	8	-12	15.2	14.5	0.69	16.8	14.5	2.29
Davis Bertans	27	28	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.05	-14	18	-32	16.7	13.8	2.91	15.4	14.9	0.44

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sterling Brown	24	25	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.09	13	-17	30	15.3	14.9	0.39	15.9	14.2	1.67
Trey Burke	23	23	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-9	14	15.7	14.9	0.80	15.0	14.5	0.47
Dorian Finney-Smith	60	58	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	2	-8	14.6	15.8	-1.22	14.2	15.3	-1.11
Willie Cauley-Stein	22	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	3	-10	14.6	15.2	-0.58	13.8	14.9	-1.14
Dwight Powell	23	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.06	-12	8	-20	15.0	15.1	-0.11	13.6	14.9	-1.32
Maxi Kleber	57	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-6	8	15.6	14.3	1.24	15.7	13.0	2.68
Reggie Bullock	55	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-3	2	15.6	14.3	1.36	15.5	13.6	1.87
Kristaps Porzingis	75	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.47	0	-4	4	14.9	15.4	-0.46	14.4	15.4	-1.03
Luka Doncic	75	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.27	-9	5	-14	14.9	15.7	-0.80	14.5	15.0	-0.47
Tim Hardaway Jr.	76	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	1	-6	14.8	16.0	-1.24	13.9	17.0	-3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.33,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.37,0.3,0.4,0.53,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.16,0	91.4%
IND 91, SEA 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.17,0.17,0	90.9%
CLE 87, SEA 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.1,0.02,0	90.8%