NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	8.4 [204]		MVP	Edmond Sumner (IND): +24.7%
Indiana Pacers	115		Comeback	2.8 [506]		LVP	Saddiq Bey (DET): -22.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Stewart	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.16	-0.00	9	65%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	5	90%	0.23	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	9	77%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Frank Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Jerami Grant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	24	45%	-0.06	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Josh Jackson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	14	37%	-0.10	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Killian Hayes	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.09	0.01	14	24%	-0.18	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Edmond Sumner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.08	0.00	15	71%	0.25	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.08	0.00	10	75%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.14	0.01	21	54%	0.22	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.10	0.01	19	49%	0.13	1	-0.02	13	54%	-0.05
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	55%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	27%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Kelan Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	6	37%	0.02	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.7	31.9	14.8	28.5	2.3	42.5	151.4
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +33.1%

IND +2.4%

DET -22.6%

IND +36.3%

IND +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	13.9	13.4	14.4	102.8	109.5	111.3
season	15.0	13.6		107.0	111.5
opponent	14.4	14.2		111.2	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	15.1	16.7	11.8	13.9
IND	13.2	14.3	14.0	12.2	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Saddiq Bey	57	58	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.12	10	-16	26	13.8	14.0	-0.25	14.5	12.0	2.44
Hamidou Diallo	48	45	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.14	4	-10	14	12.9	14.8	-1.92	13.1	13.6	-0.53
Mason Plumlee	63	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.31	7	-13	20	14.1	13.7	0.39	13.6	13.0	0.61
Killian Hayes	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-7	8	13.9	13.9	-0.08	13.1	13.6	-0.48
Wayne Ellington	47	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	3	-12	13.5	14.2	-0.71	12.7	13.9	-1.18
Frank Jackson	33	31	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.56	7	-13	20	13.7	14.0	-0.35	12.6	13.7	-1.10
Cory Joseph	65	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	1	-8	13.9	13.9	0.08	13.6	13.1	0.48
Isaiah Stewart	43	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	7	-20	13.7	14.1	-0.39	13.0	13.6	-0.61
Josh Jackson	57	59	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.38	-13	7	-20	15.0	12.7	2.29	13.8	12.9	0.93
Jerami Grant	76	74	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.35	-17	11	-28	14.2	13.1	1.08	13.1	14.0	-0.86

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. McConnell	65	68	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.32	15	-9	24	12.8	14.3	-1.47	13.7	14.2	-0.43
Malcolm Brogdon	79	78	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-7	20	13.1	14.3	-1.27	14.7	11.6	3.08
Caris LeVert	66	65	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.40	7	-1	8	13.4	13.4	0.05	14.6	12.8	1.87
Oshae Brissett	86	86	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	6	-6	13.3	13.8	-0.49	13.1	17.5	-4.43
Edmond Sumner	77	76	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	1	4	13.3	13.6	-0.34	13.3	15.3	-1.99
Kelan Martin	10	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	6	-6	13.1	13.4	-0.32	11.6	14.1	-2.55
Doug McDermott	49	52	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	7	-8	13.7	13.1	0.53	14.2	13.6	0.64
JaKarr Sampson	44	44	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.10	3	3	0	14.4	12.7	1.71	15.6	12.7	2.84
Justin Holiday	44	45	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	9	-12	13.2	13.5	-0.32	12.8	14.7	-1.96
Aaron Holiday	5	6	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.06	-9	15	-24	19.0	13.1	5.89	13.7	13.9	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.46,0.33,0.53,0.89,0.98,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, NOP 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.94,1,1	92.7%
LAL 108, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	91.2%
DAL 92, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.55,0.79,0.84,0.98,1	91.0%