NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	119		Excitement	6.7 [441]		MVP	Derrick White (SAS): +32.2%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	1.0 [1026]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): -11.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.32	0.17	0.18	0.02	16	68%	0.32	0	0.00	5	80%	0.04
Rudy Gay	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	12	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	14	67%	0.18	3	-0.12	8	100%	0.05
Lonnie Walker IV	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	53%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Drew Eubanks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Devin Vassell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,-0.05	0.07	-0.09	0.04	10	68%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	17	34%	-0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.07	0.02	8	117%	0.30	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.01	11	68%	0.27	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.01	17	65%	0.24	6	-0.13	6	100%	0.04
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	90%	0.09	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	15	63%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	27.2	14.8	28.5	2.4	36.5	134.9
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.7%

DEN +3.0%

SAS -0.2%

SAS -10.6%

DEN +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.8	14.4	120.2	121.0	111.3
season	14.6	15.0		109.8	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.3	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	14.8	15.4	10.4	14.2
DEN	13.2	14.0	13.4	18.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	72	71	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.41	17	-19	36	13.0	17.3	-4.27	15.8	12.3	3.48
Devin Vassell	7	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-3	4	14.0	14.2	-0.21	15.7	14.7	1.04
Dejounte Murray	64	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.35	7	-9	16	13.9	14.7	-0.85	15.7	13.1	2.60
Drew Eubanks	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	0	-2	13.5	14.4	-0.94	13.7	15.1	-1.43
Keldon Johnson	53	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.36	7	-9	16	13.6	14.9	-1.27	16.9	12.3	4.59
Jakob Poeltl	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-2	2	14.4	13.5	0.94	15.1	13.7	1.43
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-2	2	14.3	13.9	0.36	14.8	14.7	0.05
Rudy Gay	42	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	9	-20	14.9	13.7	1.20	12.4	16.5	-4.09
Patty Mills	49	49	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	10	-22	15.0	13.4	1.56	13.2	16.3	-3.11
Lonnie Walker IV	35	37	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.08	-18	16	-34	15.7	13.4	2.31	12.5	16.1	-3.64

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	53	54	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.37	13	-11	24	13.9	15.7	-1.88	14.2	14.2	0.03
Nikola Jokic	76	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-5	12	14.9	14.2	0.66	14.8	12.2	2.53
Michael Porter Jr.	81	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	-4	10	15.2	12.6	2.62	14.8	11.9	2.81
PJ Dozier	41	42	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.11	10	-8	18	13.0	16.0	-3.05	14.2	14.2	0.08
Paul Millsap	37	37	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	-6	14	13.2	15.7	-2.43	14.3	14.1	0.13
Aaron Gordon	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	8	-14	15.7	13.2	2.43	14.1	14.3	-0.13
Will Barton	76	75	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.44	-12	14	-26	15.4	12.8	2.52	13.7	15.7	-1.95
JaVale McGee	24	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	7	-12	14.2	14.9	-0.66	12.2	14.8	-2.53
Facundo Campazzo	49	47	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.09	-11	13	-24	15.4	14.1	1.37	13.9	14.4	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.87,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 108, POR 114	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.93,1,1	94.7%
CLE 78, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1	94.6%
MIA 95, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.76,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.4%