NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	8.2 [233]		MVP	Dennis Schroder (LAL): +21.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	3.8 [464]		LVP	Alex Caruso (LAL): -17.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Bamba	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	9	55%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwayne Bacon	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	19	59%	0.10	1	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.05
R.J. Hampton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	8	59%	0.14	2	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Karim Mane	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chasson Randle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	12	37%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuma Okeke	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.08	0.00	11	61%	0.11	2	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Khem Birch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.00	6	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.15	0.00	14	63%	0.28	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.04
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.11	0.01	20	52%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	60%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.09
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	11	55%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	7	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	5	25%	-0.12	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	25.6	15.3	26.5	2.4	37.4	131.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +27.9%

ORL -11.2%

LAL +16.0%

LAL +13.9%

LAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAL	NBA	ORL	LAL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	14.4	95.9	99.0	111.3
season	14.9	14.6		103.9	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.0		106.7	113.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	13.7	15.6	13.6	14.4
LAL	15.2	14.0	15.7	16.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karim Mane	11	12	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-7	11	14.6	14.4	0.25	17.8	14.9	2.92
Dwayne Bacon	66	66	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.31	14	-17	31	14.2	14.8	-0.63	16.5	12.7	3.78
Mo Bamba	33	33	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-1	-1	15.6	13.8	1.86	15.5	15.2	0.31
R.J. Hampton	35	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	4	-11	14.1	14.6	-0.47	14.4	15.8	-1.37
Khem Birch	54	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	4	-11	14.7	14.0	0.66	14.2	16.6	-2.49
Michael Carter-Williams	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	5	-13	14.6	14.3	0.22	14.4	15.6	-1.23
Otto Porter Jr.	48	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-7	11	13.9	14.9	-0.94	16.1	14.5	1.62
Wendell Carter Jr.	41	42	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-2	1	13.3	15.2	-1.98	15.4	15.2	0.14
Chasson Randle	51	50	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	2	-7	14.7	14.1	0.58	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Chuma Okeke	61	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.60	3	-6	9	14.2	14.7	-0.45	15.7	14.6	1.06
James Ennis III	57	55	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.29	-10	7	-17	14.9	13.7	1.13	14.1	16.8	-2.74

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Kuzma	79	80	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.55	10	-7	17	15.2	15.8	-0.61	14.1	15.6	-1.50
Montrezl Harrell	56	55	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.28	14	-11	25	14.9	15.8	-0.91	14.5	14.2	0.31
Markieff Morris	62	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	6	-9	15.8	14.4	1.33	14.4	14.4	0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	60	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.48	-5	8	-13	15.8	14.4	1.45	14.3	14.6	-0.27
Dennis Schroder	72	72	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.47	-7	10	-17	15.4	14.8	0.64	14.4	14.3	0.12
Wesley Matthews	33	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.12	9	-6	15	14.9	15.5	-0.61	14.4	14.4	0.04
Talen Horton-Tucker	38	36	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	-1	5	14.6	15.7	-1.15	14.7	14.2	0.45
Alex Caruso	44	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	-1	5	14.7	15.8	-1.09	14.7	14.2	0.51
Marc Gasol	41	42	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	14	-25	15.8	14.9	0.91	14.2	14.5	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.71,0.75,0.63,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.22,0.29,0.61,0.69,0.89,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 124, SAC 128	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.54,0.53,0.9,0.85,0.69,1	91.5%
GSW 90, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.8,0.8,0.72,0.56,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.66,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.61,0.69,0.95,0.99,1,1	91.2%
DEN 98, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.63,0.52,0.43,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.98,1	91.0%