NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	7.9 [259]		MVP	D.J. Augustin (CHA): +22.7%
Charlotte Bobcats	100		Comeback	1.6 [697]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -15.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.15,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	13	66%	0.23	3	-0.10	12	92%	0.06
Nene	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	6	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	47%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.03
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.02	9	78%	0.10	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	21	42%	-0.05	4	-0.11	10	60%	-0.04

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.00	11	78%	0.27	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18	0.18	-0.00	0.14	-0.04	22	50%	0.28	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	8	80%	0.15	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.02	9	56%	0.08	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	17	44%	-0.05	2	-0.04	11	45%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	31.6	14.8	26.2	1.8	28.2	130.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +49.4%

DEN -13.4%

CHA +22.3%

DEN -8.4%

CHA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.5	105.4	108.7	105.7
season	14.3	16.2		110.7	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.7	12.1	14.1	16.0	14.9
CHA	12.9	16.7	18.6	16.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	39	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	0	-2	14.0	15.6	-1.61	16.6	15.9	0.63
Gary Forbes	20	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	1	-4	11.9	15.8	-3.87	15.5	16.4	-0.92
J.R. Smith	46	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-4	6	13.2	16.7	-3.49	17.6	14.8	2.75
Nene	69	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.51	9	-11	20	15.4	13.5	1.88	16.3	16.0	0.33
Shelden Williams	49	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	4	-10	15.8	14.0	1.86	15.6	16.9	-1.35
Ty Lawson	38	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	6	-14	14.7	15.1	-0.47	16.7	15.9	0.80
Carmelo Anthony	74	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-1	0	15.0	14.6	0.45	16.4	15.3	1.15
Chauncey Billups	66	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-4	6	15.8	12.7	3.09	15.8	17.3	-1.48
Arron Afflalo	64	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	1	-4	15.7	13.3	2.31	15.5	17.8	-2.27

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	79	78	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-7	16	15.7	19.5	-3.88	15.3	13.1	2.15
D.J. Augustin	73	72	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	2	-2	15.7	18.2	-2.46	15.7	12.3	3.36
Gerald Wallace	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	-1	4	16.4	15.1	1.34	15.1	14.2	0.88
Stephen Jackson	77	76	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.51	-5	7	-12	15.8	18.5	-2.78	15.4	13.0	2.37
Shaun Livingston	37	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	-2	6	16.8	15.8	1.01	13.0	16.4	-3.38
Tyrus Thomas	29	32	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	-4	10	16.9	15.9	0.96	13.6	15.7	-2.09
Nazr Mohammed	28	28	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	3	-4	15.8	16.4	-0.55	16.0	14.5	1.47
Kwame Brown	29	30	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.25	-7	9	-16	17.7	15.5	2.17	16.8	14.0	2.75
Dominic McGuire	30	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.09	1	1	0	17.1	15.8	1.28	12.1	16.4	-4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.63,0.52,0.43,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.57,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.97,1,1	92.1%
POR 104, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.93,0.85,0.77,0.99,1	92.1%
CLE 92, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.0%