NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	124		Excitement	12.6 [8]		MVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): +50.2%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	14.8 [67]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (SAC): -35.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0.50	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.5	0.09	0.42	0.01	15	67%	0.68	3	-0.18	3	100%	0.02
Harrison Barnes	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.33	0.07	0.27	0.01	15	57%	0.39	1	-0.06	7	71%	-0.05
Tyrese Haliburton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
De'Aaron Fox	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0,0	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	20	47%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Richaun Holmes	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02	0.05	-0.07	0.01	10	68%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Marvin Bagley III	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	14	41%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.08	-0.27	-0.00	6	29%	-0.30	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.13

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.10	0.02	15	73%	0.27	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	13	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	16	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.14	-0.14	0.04	-0.17	0.01	18	64%	0.45	6	-0.59	9	67%	0.04
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	0.00	9	36%	-0.08	2	-0.14	7	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	26.5	13.8	29.2	2.5	40.2	1.7	12.8	156.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.8%

DEN -23.9%

SAC +7.0%

SAC +35.8%

SAC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	14.5	14.4	109.7	107.0	111.3
season	14.0	15.0		112.2	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.4		112.3	115.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	14.7	14.4	12.0	14.0	11.5	13.5
DEN	13.0	15.6	16.3	13.2	14.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	67	64	1.01	-0.51	1.51	0.77	8	-6	14	12.9	14.5	-1.64	14.3	14.7	-0.38
Hassan Whiteside	40	40	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	-1	4	12.8	14.0	-1.20	13.5	15.0	-1.41
Harrison Barnes	89	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	13.6	13.2	0.38	14.8	13.1	1.75
De'Aaron Fox	80	83	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	4	-6	13.7	13.1	0.60	14.6	14.0	0.64
Buddy Hield	88	91	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.21	-2	4	-6	13.5	13.6	-0.07	14.4	14.7	-0.34
Richaun Holmes	45	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	1	0	14.9	12.6	2.30	14.7	14.3	0.40
Marvin Bagley III	59	59	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	0	2	13.3	13.8	-0.51	14.8	14.1	0.76
Nemanja Bjelica	33	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	6	-10	14.1	13.3	0.77	13.6	14.8	-1.25

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Dozier	33	33	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.28	-6	4	-10	14.2	14.6	-0.36	12.6	13.9	-1.29
Isaiah Hartenstein	21	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-1	0	13.5	14.7	-1.15	12.3	13.9	-1.58
Facundo Campazzo	17	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	2	-6	14.8	14.4	0.35	12.7	13.7	-1.05
Jamal Murray	73	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-5	8	14.7	14.0	0.65	14.1	12.7	1.40
Nikola Jokic	88	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.32	5	-7	12	15.0	12.7	2.30	14.0	12.2	1.82
Will Barton	74	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.25	1	-3	4	14.1	15.0	-0.90	13.0	14.5	-1.55
Gary Harris	88	87	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.40	5	-7	12	14.5	14.2	0.30	13.8	12.6	1.26
Monte Morris	36	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	5	-12	14.4	14.5	-0.07	12.9	13.8	-0.93
Paul Millsap	76	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	4	-10	14.7	14.1	0.58	13.8	12.9	0.90
Michael Porter Jr.	64	65	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.74	0	-2	2	13.9	15.2	-1.27	13.8	13.2	0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.31,0.15,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.76,0.91,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 112, DAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.41,0.21,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.77,0.84,0	88.5%
LAC 105, HOU 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.46,0.55,0.58,0	88.4%
HOU 111, BOS 110	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.8,0.68,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.1,0.01,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.73,0	88.1%