NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	7.5 [361]		MVP	Mike Muscala (OKC): +68.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	116		Comeback	231.6 [5]		LVP	Chris Paul (OKC): -10.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Hill	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.3	0.00	0.26	-0.04	10	50%	0.31	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.21	0.01	0.05	8	106%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Silva	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.39,0.35,0.05	0.21	-0.16	0.01	16	73%	0.08	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.04
Goran Dragic	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	64%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	7	21%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15,0.68	0.68	0.03	0.64	-0.01	5	60%	0.68	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.13	0.04	14	72%	0.25	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	9	82%	0.17	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Abdel Nader	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	50%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.04	3	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrance Ferguson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devon Hall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	10	47%	-0.02	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.01	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	12	43%	-0.02	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	3.5	28.4	14.8	26.5	3.3	29.3	137.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +56.0%

MIA -10.8%

OKC +8.9%

MIA -8.0%

OKC +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	13.9	14.6	14.2	113.9	114.9	109.6
season	14.7	14.3		111.7	108.8
opponent	14.5	14.5		107.6	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.0	13.0	13.4	16.1	13.9
OKC	14.7	15.8	15.4	12.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	35	33	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.06	7	-8	15	14.3	13.7	0.59	15.0	14.5	0.57
Goran Dragic	49	49	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.04	6	-7	13	13.3	14.4	-1.10	14.8	14.5	0.22
Jimmy Butler	34	35	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.17	13	-14	27	12.1	14.8	-2.73	15.7	14.1	1.55
Kelly Olynyk	39	39	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-6	11	14.7	13.3	1.42	14.4	14.8	-0.42
Jae Crowder	16	16	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-7	13	12.7	14.1	-1.33	15.7	14.4	1.24
Duncan Robinson	33	35	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.14	9	-10	19	11.6	15.0	-3.41	15.3	14.3	1.07
Bam Adebayo	34	35	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.04	5	-6	11	12.2	14.7	-2.47	15.7	14.1	1.68
Andre Iguodala	32	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	9	-19	13.3	14.1	-0.86	15.2	14.4	0.89
Tyler Herro	79	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	7	-15	14.5	11.7	2.80	14.6	14.7	-0.12
Meyers Leonard	37	36	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.43	-8	7	-15	14.6	13.4	1.18	14.6	14.7	-0.05
Gabe Vincent	37	37	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.46	-13	12	-25	15.3	13.0	2.25	13.6	15.3	-1.70
Chris Silva	30	30	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.54	-12	11	-23	15.1	13.3	1.80	12.3	15.6	-3.33

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	21	20	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.58	12	-11	23	12.7	15.2	-2.50	16.4	13.2	3.22
Darius Bazley	55	56	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.34	20	-19	39	13.7	15.8	-2.05	14.9	12.5	2.41
Abdel Nader	35	35	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.83	0	1	-1	13.1	15.5	-2.34	14.1	13.8	0.33
Devon Hall	26	24	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.73	2	-1	3	13.8	14.9	-1.18	14.6	13.6	0.99
Terrance Ferguson	47	48	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-7	15	14.9	14.4	0.51	15.1	12.7	2.43
Andre Roberson	25	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.31	17	-16	33	14.1	14.8	-0.75	13.2	14.1	-0.85
Hamidou Diallo	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.30	11	-10	21	14.1	15.2	-1.18	14.4	13.3	1.03
Luguentz Dort	16	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	7	-13	15.7	14.4	1.24	12.7	14.1	-1.33
Nerlens Noel	36	37	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	5	-9	15.4	14.2	1.20	13.5	14.1	-0.52
Steven Adams	44	44	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	8	-15	15.0	14.4	0.55	13.0	14.6	-1.58
Chris Paul	50	52	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.11	-6	7	-13	15.2	14.1	1.10	13.4	14.3	-0.88
Danilo Gallinari	46	45	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.13	-19	20	-39	15.8	13.7	2.05	12.5	14.9	-2.41
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	53	52	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	0.15	-23	24	-47	15.8	13.3	2.50	12.8	15.0	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.36,0.09,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 120, DAL 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.37,1	91.2%
NJN 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.42,1	91.0%
LAC 98, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.28,1	90.5%