NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	116		Excitement	10.5 [61]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (HOU): +55.6%
Houston Rockets	120		Comeback	19.5 [66]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (MIL): -23.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.38	0.06	0.28	-0.04	18	55%	0.40	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.23,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.04	-0.02	25	61%	0.57	3	-0.36	9	67%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.00	3	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	-0.03	0.04	0.00	3	62%	0.11	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Wilson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	10	41%	-0.02	5	-0.14	2	0%	-0.04
Khris Middleton	-0.19	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,-0.09,-0.19	0.07	-0.23	0.02	18	67%	-0.01	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.08	-0.15	0.00	6	25%	-0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.13,0.56	0.56	0.03	0.52	-0.01	21	57%	0.69	5	-0.13	12	83%	0.19
Danuel House Jr.	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	10	73%	0.24	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.05
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	12	58%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	14	59%	0.20	3	-0.10	13	85%	0.05
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	14	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.5	32.5	14.8	32.0	2.6	33.4	146.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -17.8%

HOU +59.2%

MIL -58.1%

HOU +66.7%

MIL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.9	12.2	14.2	109.4	112.1	109.6
season	13.2	13.4		111.0	111.2
opponent	14.4	14.1		108.9	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	14.1	15.4	15.2	14.9
HOU	12.8	10.3	12.9	13.0	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	59	59	0.36	-0.86	1.22	-0.05	14	-18	32	13.8	16.2	-2.44	13.1	11.0	2.10
D.J. Wilson	16	14	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.12	3	-7	10	14.9	14.9	0.07	12.1	12.2	-0.12
Ersan Ilyasova	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	2	-8	13.4	15.0	-1.57	10.7	12.3	-1.63
Sterling Brown	20	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.14	-10	6	-16	13.7	15.2	-1.45	11.4	12.4	-0.93
Donte DiVincenzo	51	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.0	14.8	0.16	12.1	12.3	-0.24
Robin Lopez	9	9	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	4	-12	15.2	14.8	0.38	12.7	12.1	0.53
Marvin Williams	49	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-2	0	16.0	13.9	2.09	12.0	12.3	-0.33
Brook Lopez	67	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.39	6	-10	16	15.4	14.0	1.43	12.9	11.0	1.86
George Hill	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	15.2	14.5	0.66	11.8	12.7	-0.92
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-5	6	14.6	15.5	-0.89	11.9	12.7	-0.79
Kyle Korver	42	44	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	7	-18	14.8	14.9	-0.15	11.6	12.6	-0.92
Khris Middleton	75	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-3	2	15.0	14.6	0.37	12.3	12.0	0.29

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Covington	85	83	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.53	2	2	0	12.0	12.8	-0.75	14.3	16.8	-2.43
Russell Westbrook	86	87	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.52	-5	9	-14	12.2	12.2	-0.02	14.7	15.5	-0.73
Danuel House Jr.	68	70	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.50	-5	9	-14	12.6	11.5	1.05	14.6	15.4	-0.86
P.J. Tucker	84	84	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.49	-6	10	-16	12.3	11.7	0.67	14.9	14.9	0.02
James Harden	73	75	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.47	-7	11	-18	12.7	11.1	1.64	14.8	15.1	-0.26
Ben McLemore	47	42	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.15	14	-10	24	11.8	12.5	-0.66	14.9	14.9	0.01
Jeff Green	49	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.20	13	-9	22	11.8	12.5	-0.63	16.1	13.9	2.25
Austin Rivers	43	42	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.25	14	-10	24	11.5	12.6	-1.11	15.4	14.5	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.57,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.72,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.2,0.05,0.32,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 82, PHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.52,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.23,0.58,1	90.4%
PHI 81, MIA 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.72,1	89.6%
PHI 86, NOK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.58,1	89.1%