NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	81		Excitement	9.1 [95]		MVP	Allen Iverson (PHI): +27.4%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	3.7 [394]		LVP	Aaron McKie (PHI): -35.3%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.12	0.16	0.01	28	62%	0.31	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.05
Tyrone Hill	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	60%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jumaine Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Todd MacCulloch	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.17
George Lynch	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	44%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	14	29%	-0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.00	6	33%	-0.11	5	-0.24	3	33%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.15	0.15	-0.05	0.20	-0.00	10	50%	0.22	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	0.00	15	61%	0.18	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.05	-0.01	10	62%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
A.C. Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.24,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.22,-0.22,-0.08,-0.14	-0.14	-0.17	0.03	-0.00	20	36%	-0.00	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.05
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.7	26.1	20.5	30.5	2.7	35.8	141.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.6%

PHI -12.1%

MIA +11.1%

MIA +14.1%

PHI -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.5	15.5	89.0	93.3	100.9
season	15.7	16.3		101.4	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.5		96.9	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	17.7	16.8	13.5	18.1	16.5
MIA	14.2	15.3	17.2	15.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	63	60	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.07	8	-10	18	17.8	13.6	4.17	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Kevin Ollie	3	4	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.05	1	-3	4	21.7	16.3	5.35	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Todd MacCulloch	8	9	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-7	12	12.6	16.9	-4.24	15.7	15.5	0.19
Rodney Buford	37	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-3	4	15.1	17.4	-2.29	15.7	15.4	0.29
Jumaine Jones	18	19	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	7	-16	20.7	15.5	5.20	12.4	16.3	-3.91
Eric Snow	67	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-7	12	16.5	16.5	0.05	15.0	16.9	-1.89
George Lynch	52	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-2	2	14.5	19.2	-4.65	15.6	15.4	0.24
Allen Iverson	85	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	3	-8	16.8	12.8	3.92	15.4	16.4	-1.01
Dikembe Mutombo	77	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	7	-16	16.6	16.1	0.50	16.2	12.3	3.96
Aaron McKie	45	44	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.52	-7	5	-12	16.2	16.8	-0.67	16.6	14.4	2.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	69	73	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.55	11	-9	20	16.0	13.9	2.06	16.5	16.6	-0.08
Anthony Mason	75	78	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.50	6	-4	10	15.3	16.6	-1.28	16.3	17.5	-1.13
Dan Majerle	61	60	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.53	2	0	2	15.1	16.3	-1.15	16.4	16.7	-0.28
Alonzo Mourning	49	50	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-10	22	14.9	16.2	-1.28	16.5	16.5	0.06
Tim Hardaway	72	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.47	-6	8	-14	15.3	16.3	-0.99	16.8	15.4	1.38
Anthony Carter	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	1	0	14.9	16.0	-1.19	16.7	16.3	0.37
A.C. Green	13	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	5	-8	16.4	15.3	1.04	14.5	16.8	-2.30
Eddie Jones	17	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.11	1	1	0	16.3	15.3	0.99	17.3	16.3	0.98
Brian Grant	48	52	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.06	-14	16	-30	16.5	14.3	2.18	16.5	16.5	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.32,0.72,1	90.6%
NYK 86, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.73,1	90.5%
POR 92, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.76,0.85,1	90.2%