NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	153		Excitement	10.3 [66]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +47.7%
Dallas Mavericks	149		Comeback	180.8 [12]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -32.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.48	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.48,0.48,0.48	0.43	0.14	0.09	20	80%	0.56	1	-0.08	21	86%	0.05
Robert Covington	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.28	-0.04	0.34	0.02	14	41%	0.32	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Danuel House Jr.	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.11	-0.01	13	77%	0.29	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.03	0.00	4	130%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Tucker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Austin Rivers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	59%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	53%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.28,-0.3	-0.09	-0.21	-0.01	30	46%	-0.03	6	-0.27	8	50%	-0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.41,0.41,0.37	0.37	0.19	0.17	-0.01	26	62%	0.43	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.04
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.31	0.31	0.30	0.03	0.03	16	91%	0.31	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	86%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.15	-0.07	0.03	12	77%	0.21	3	-0.17	7	100%	0.04
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonius Cleveland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	5	58%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	4	21%	-0.11	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Luka Doncic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.04,-0.05,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.32	-0.32	-0.11	-0.22	-0.02	27	44%	-0.07	8	-0.25	9	56%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	32.4	3.3	33.3	14.8	27.5	3.5	37.2	2.4	14.6	169.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +71.8%

DAL -7.1%

DAL -34.5%

HOU +24.4%

DAL -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	11.8	14.7	14.2	127.5	124.2	109.6
season	13.4	14.5		111.2	115.2
opponent	14.1	14.4		111.3	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	11.2	13.2	12.6	12.0	8.2	11.8
DAL	14.0	14.0	13.6	17.2	14.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	100	102	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.40	12	-8	20	11.2	15.1	-3.91	15.0	12.4	2.60
Robert Covington	98	98	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.45	7	-3	10	11.5	13.4	-1.86	14.3	16.3	-2.03
James Harden	99	98	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.41	8	-4	12	11.9	11.5	0.39	14.7	14.4	0.31
Danuel House Jr.	95	96	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	4	-4	11.9	11.6	0.25	15.3	12.2	3.06
P.J. Tucker	90	90	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.49	-1	5	-6	11.5	12.9	-1.46	15.1	13.2	1.94
Jeff Green	42	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.14	3	1	2	12.7	11.4	1.27	14.1	14.9	-0.79
Austin Rivers	44	43	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	8	-12	12.9	11.2	1.65	14.0	15.0	-0.99
Ben McLemore	32	31	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.10	-5	9	-14	13.1	11.4	1.66	12.6	15.4	-2.71

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorian Finney-Smith	58	60	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.20	3	-7	10	15.4	14.0	1.40	13.4	10.3	3.05
Trey Burke	70	69	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.09	9	-13	22	13.8	15.8	-1.99	12.3	11.3	0.99
Boban Marjanovic	11	12	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.04	7	-11	18	13.4	14.8	-1.43	10.7	12.0	-1.31
Justin Jackson	19	17	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.07	7	-11	18	15.0	14.6	0.41	11.8	11.8	-0.02
Antonius Cleveland	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-4	4	0.0	14.7	-14.66	1.0	11.9	-10.93
Delon Wright	33	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.13	-9	5	-14	14.6	14.7	-0.07	12.5	11.6	0.93
Luka Doncic	94	94	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-4	4	15.3	12.5	2.76	12.1	10.9	1.17
Tim Hardaway Jr.	97	96	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	3	-10	14.2	16.6	-2.41	11.4	13.6	-2.18
Maxi Kleber	79	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.45	-7	3	-10	14.3	15.3	-1.04	11.6	12.2	-0.57
Seth Curry	50	51	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.34	-12	8	-20	15.8	13.8	1.99	11.3	12.3	-0.99
Kristaps Porzingis	89	89	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.45	-11	7	-18	14.5	15.2	-0.68	11.2	13.6	-2.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 103, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.79,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.26,0	89.6%
CLE 128, SAS 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.5,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.15,0	89.2%
PHX 105, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.93,0.78,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.42,0	89.1%