NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.8 [191]		MVP	Jordan Clarkson (UTA): +23.4%
Utah Jazz	95		Comeback	14.3 [37]		LVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): -31.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	24	58%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.09
Monte Morris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Vlatko Cancar	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.21,-0.21	0.06	-0.28	-0.01	26	55%	-0.11	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Harris	-0.25	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.21,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32,-0.32,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.25	-0.22	-0.05	-0.03	13	16%	-0.12	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.04

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.10	0.01	7	100%	0.27	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	10	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,-0.12	-0.12	0.09	-0.20	0.01	13	66%	-0.05	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.16	-0.02	18	43%	-0.14	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Joe Ingles	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.08,-0.17,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.18	-0.00	24	37%	-0.02	4	-0.29	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	24.3	14.7	24.1	2.4	35.5	127.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -6.0%

DEN +1.4%

DEN +27.7%

DEN +28.1%

UTA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	14.9	14.2	101.0	97.9	109.6
season	15.0	14.9		112.0	112.1
opponent	14.2	14.5		109.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	14.4	16.0	12.8	14.7
UTA	15.3	16.3	14.0	14.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	77	79	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-7	17	15.3	12.7	2.57	15.4	13.1	2.32
Jamal Murray	85	84	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-2	7	14.8	14.0	0.85	15.2	13.0	2.25
Gary Harris	77	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.35	7	-4	11	14.4	15.9	-1.52	15.0	14.5	0.58
PJ Dozier	51	49	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	1	1	14.4	15.1	-0.74	15.2	14.7	0.48
Torrey Craig	75	75	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	7	-11	14.7	15.0	-0.33	14.4	17.0	-2.59
Monte Morris	85	85	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	1	1	14.9	13.6	1.32	14.7	16.9	-2.25
Vlatko Cancar	35	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	10	-17	14.3	15.0	-0.71	14.6	15.1	-0.52

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Clarkson	47	46	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.22	-7	4	-11	14.6	15.3	-0.64	14.8	14.7	0.08
Royce O'Neale	40	40	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-4	5	14.9	15.0	-0.08	14.8	14.7	0.18
Tony Bradley	20	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-2	1	13.0	15.4	-2.39	13.4	15.1	-1.78
Georges Niang	28	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.11	-6	3	-9	13.5	15.5	-1.99	14.9	14.7	0.28
Joe Ingles	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-5	7	14.9	15.1	-0.26	15.1	14.1	0.94
Mike Conley	68	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-4	5	15.7	13.2	2.44	14.9	14.5	0.35
Bojan Bogdanovic	69	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.52	3	-6	9	15.5	13.5	1.99	14.7	14.9	-0.28
Rudy Gobert	77	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	-1	-1	15.4	13.0	2.39	15.1	13.4	1.78
Donovan Mitchell	75	76	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.53	-6	3	-9	14.6	16.1	-1.54	14.3	16.4	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.72,0.7,0.84,0.91,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.44,0.46,0.67,0.77,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 110, SEA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.58,0	90.1%
DAL 105, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.58,0	90.0%
DAL 95, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.72,0.85,0.58,0	89.8%