NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	7.8 [295]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +25.8%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	12.2 [185]		LVP	Carl Landry (SAC): -34.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.13	0.01	14	66%	0.28	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Tyson Chandler	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.14	0.07	0.09	0.02	5	67%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	-0.01	0.01	15	76%	0.23	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.01	5	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	6	33%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.10
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	5	60%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	10	35%	-0.07	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.06	-0.02	11	64%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	5	80%	0.18	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	20	62%	0.20	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	125%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.03	15	63%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.05	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Pooh Jeter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.1	-0.10	0.04	-0.13	0.01	14	49%	-0.10	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.35	-0.35	-0.10	-0.25	-0.01	6	29%	-0.10	3	-0.24	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.6	16.3	29.4	2.4	35.5	137.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -6.1%

DAL +31.7%

DAL +6.9%

DAL +16.2%

DAL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.5	115.4	110.8	105.7
season	15.7	14.9		108.5	102.1
opponent	14.9	15.7		107.7	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.0	15.6	15.2	12.1	15.1
SAC	14.8	17.1	16.1	16.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	60	62	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.43	9	-7	16	13.9	17.4	-3.47	16.6	15.4	1.21
Tyson Chandler	47	49	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.60	3	-1	4	14.3	15.9	-1.57	16.4	15.9	0.50
Jason Kidd	63	65	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.58	2	0	2	14.3	16.8	-2.44	16.2	16.1	0.12
Jose Juan Barea	48	50	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	-7	16	14.2	16.1	-1.97	16.6	15.7	0.84
Dirk Nowitzki	70	69	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.38	-3	5	-8	15.2	14.8	0.38	16.0	16.7	-0.69
Shawn Marion	49	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	-1	4	15.6	14.6	0.98	16.2	16.2	-0.03
Caron Butler	49	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	5	-8	16.4	13.5	2.88	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Brendan Haywood	44	44	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.16	-1	3	-4	15.9	14.3	1.57	15.9	16.4	-0.50
DeShawn Stevenson	25	24	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.02	-9	11	-20	17.9	14.0	3.83	15.5	16.4	-0.88

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	30	31	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.19	4	-6	10	16.1	16.2	-0.14	16.1	14.6	1.46
Jason Thompson	39	38	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-6	10	15.2	16.9	-1.66	16.6	14.1	2.50
Donte Greene	48	47	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.05	2	-4	6	16.6	15.8	0.76	16.9	13.2	3.62
Pooh Jeter	20	18	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.04	2	-4	6	14.7	16.6	-1.84	16.4	14.8	1.68
Omri Casspi	27	26	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-6	10	14.7	16.8	-2.15	15.9	14.8	1.10
Beno Udrih	75	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	3	-8	16.5	14.7	1.82	14.9	16.1	-1.18
Francisco Garcia	30	30	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	16.5	16.0	0.45	12.5	16.4	-3.88
Carl Landry	54	53	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.44	-6	4	-10	16.9	15.2	1.66	14.1	16.6	-2.50
Tyreke Evans	79	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.52	-7	5	-12	16.4	15.0	1.41	14.7	17.6	-2.94
DeMarcus Cousins	63	60	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.63	-6	4	-10	16.2	16.1	0.14	14.6	16.1	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 83, PHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.76,0.71,0	90.6%
NYK 91, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.75,0.72,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.42,0	90.6%
SEA 87, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.77,0.74,0	90.3%