NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	9.5 [120]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +37.6%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	8.0 [147]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -35.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.38	0.15	0.22	-0.00	20	69%	0.52	3	-0.14	8	62%	-0.05
Jerami Grant	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.14	0.05	6	75%	0.21	0	0.00	8	100%	0.09
Mason Plumlee	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.09	-0.03	6	83%	0.17	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.11	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	8	45%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.35	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.35	-0.06	-0.26	0.04	18	39%	-0.32	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.11	-0.01	10	70%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	5	80%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	9	59%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.07	0.01	3	87%	0.17	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.08	-0.09	0.01	7	80%	0.09	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.05
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.16	0.00	5	50%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.29	-0.29	-0.05	-0.25	-0.01	24	50%	-0.06	6	-0.23	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.4	28.5	15.0	27.2	3.3	32.3	134.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +4.2%

DEN +8.3%

DAL -4.1%

DEN +13.2%

DEN +28.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	14.2	111.5	110.4	109.6
season	15.0	14.5		112.0	115.2
opponent	14.1	14.5		111.3	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.6	13.6	16.0	15.4	15.3
DAL	14.0	13.1	14.0	18.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	35	34	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.66	4	-3	7	14.3	15.9	-1.62	15.6	14.1	1.49
Malik Beasley	53	55	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.55	7	-6	13	14.3	16.7	-2.41	15.1	14.0	1.15
Torrey Craig	36	32	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	3	-5	16.6	14.6	2.07	14.2	14.9	-0.66
Jerami Grant	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	6	-11	15.8	14.3	1.48	14.0	16.1	-2.10
Gary Harris	71	69	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.48	-7	8	-15	16.0	13.6	2.41	14.3	15.7	-1.41
Juancho Hernangomez	25	25	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	-6	13	13.5	16.0	-2.47	16.3	14.1	2.25
Michael Porter Jr.	29	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	-1	3	14.5	15.7	-1.18	15.1	14.4	0.70
Monte Morris	43	47	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-2	5	13.8	16.6	-2.77	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Jamal Murray	60	58	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.07	-1	2	-3	16.5	13.4	3.17	15.2	13.8	1.39
Nikola Jokic	61	62	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.19	-3	4	-7	15.9	14.3	1.62	14.1	15.6	-1.49

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	51	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-7	13	14.6	14.8	-0.19	17.0	13.5	3.49
Delon Wright	61	62	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-4	7	14.1	15.5	-1.40	15.8	14.5	1.26
Justin Jackson	40	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	3	-7	15.3	14.2	1.10	15.3	15.4	-0.06
Jalen Brunson	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	4	-9	15.6	14.2	1.42	13.9	16.0	-2.10
Luka Doncic	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.47	7	-8	15	14.0	16.7	-2.62	15.9	13.6	2.21
Seth Curry	51	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	4	-9	14.6	14.7	-0.10	14.5	16.3	-1.79
Dorian Finney-Smith	62	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.45	3	-4	7	14.3	15.4	-1.08	15.7	14.7	0.98
Maxi Kleber	51	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.35	-6	5	-11	14.5	14.8	-0.35	14.0	16.8	-2.83
Tim Hardaway Jr.	61	62	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.56	-4	3	-7	15.7	12.9	2.74	15.1	15.8	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.89,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.81,0.7,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.58,0	92.6%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.58,0	92.5%
LAL 103, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.68,0.42,0	92.1%