NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	115		Excitement	9.4 [132]		MVP	Tony Snell (DET): +44.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	113		Comeback	18.1 [123]		LVP	Darius Garland (CLE): -23.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0.45	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.45	0.17	0.29	0.02	10	90%	0.45	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.29,0.29,0.24	0.09	0.31	0.17	12	70%	0.32	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.08,0.13	-0.01	0.13	-0.02	21	52%	0.23	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Sekou Doumbouya	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	68%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Thon Maker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Langston Galloway	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	11	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.21	0.12	-0.00	15	94%	0.47	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Dean Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	72%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	16	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ante Zizic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.04,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	19	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.11
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	7	50%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Darius Garland	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.24	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	0.01	12	50%	-0.19	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	27.1	14.5	24.4	1.8	45.5	139.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +60.8%

CLE -6.2%

CLE -43.0%

DET +36.8%

DET +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	15.1	14.4	14.2	118.6	115.3	109.6
season	15.1	15.1		108.3	106.3
opponent	13.8	14.2		114.2	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.6	15.4	15.1	13.1	15.1
CLE	13.4	12.9	13.7	18.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Snell	62	63	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-12	26	14.6	16.0	-1.37	15.3	12.9	2.34
Derrick Rose	60	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.51	5	-3	8	14.6	15.8	-1.20	15.5	12.6	2.86
Andre Drummond	79	79	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	-5	12	15.2	14.8	0.32	13.7	17.6	-3.88
Thon Maker	22	20	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	-5	12	13.4	15.6	-2.18	18.6	13.4	5.28
Langston Galloway	41	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	3	-4	15.0	15.1	-0.12	13.4	15.2	-1.83
Svi Mykhailiuk	71	71	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	0	2	15.6	13.8	1.81	13.9	15.9	-1.94
Bruce Brown	56	56	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	4	-6	15.3	14.8	0.46	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Sekou Doumbouya	68	68	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	6	-10	15.2	14.9	0.28	15.1	12.9	2.23
Christian Wood	26	29	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	0.07	-18	20	-38	16.7	14.5	2.24	11.6	15.7	-4.11

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ante Zizic	34	34	0.41	-0.91	1.31	-0.03	15	-17	32	13.3	15.0	-1.72	15.8	14.7	1.13
Matthew Dellavedova	42	42	0.37	-0.87	1.23	-0.07	15	-17	32	12.3	16.1	-3.83	15.9	14.5	1.47
Brandon Knight	49	48	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.08	7	-9	16	14.2	14.7	-0.53	15.5	14.7	0.76
Dean Wade	13	13	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.10	13	-15	28	12.8	14.7	-1.85	15.7	15.0	0.69
Darius Garland	73	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-3	4	14.1	15.6	-1.49	15.1	15.1	0.01
Kevin Love	71	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.40	-5	3	-8	14.9	13.3	1.64	15.4	14.3	1.16
Collin Sexton	70	68	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.39	-17	15	-32	15.3	12.4	2.83	14.8	15.9	-1.10
Tristan Thompson	64	63	-0.91	0.41	-1.31	-0.41	-17	15	-32	15.0	13.3	1.72	14.7	15.8	-1.13
Cedi Osman	74	73	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.37	-22	20	-42	15.3	11.7	3.57	14.2	17.7	-3.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.67,0.64,0.78,0.75,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.74,0.65,0.77,0.69,0.84,0.83,0.92,0	92.5%
UTA 112, MIN 107	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.93,0.77,0.72,0	91.7%
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	91.4%