NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	113		Excitement	10.7 [50]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): +53.5%
San Antonio Spurs	117		Comeback	3.0 [569]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -28.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.4	0.13	0.32	0.05	20	57%	0.40	0	0.00	9	67%	0.00
Glenn Robinson III	0.25	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.13	0.01	17	69%	0.30	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Damion Lee	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.11	0.01	13	71%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alen Smailagic	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	6	58%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ky Bowman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.01	9	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Omari Spellman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Paschall	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jacob Evans	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquese Chriss	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Draymond Green	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.03	-0.25	-0.01	11	45%	-0.22	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53	0.53	0.09	0.50	0.05	18	60%	0.56	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.09	0.12	-0.06	14	60%	0.28	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.14	-0.02	13	54%	0.32	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.08,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	12	58%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	13	61%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	27.6	15.4	28.5	2.4	29.4	2.4	13.2	144.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +62.7%

SAS +5.5%

SAS +3.1%

GSW -9.2%

GSW -12.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.1	14.2	109.7	114.7	109.6
season	14.1	14.1		103.9	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.3		112.0	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	13.4	14.3	17.2	20.0	14.1	15.9
SAS	16.0	16.4	14.0	13.7	15.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacob Evans	32	32	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.23	-5	1	-6	18.3	14.8	3.46	14.1	15.6	-1.46
Damion Lee	66	67	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-7	10	15.8	16.1	-0.38	15.7	14.0	1.67
Alen Smailagic	21	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-1	-2	17.0	15.6	1.33	11.8	15.9	-4.10
Ky Bowman	43	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-5	6	16.2	15.7	0.54	13.0	16.6	-3.58
Omari Spellman	22	22	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-1	-2	18.2	15.3	2.97	13.1	15.7	-2.60
Eric Paschall	35	34	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	3	-10	17.6	15.0	2.59	13.1	16.1	-3.01
Marquese Chriss	65	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-3	2	15.4	16.7	-1.34	16.6	12.7	3.94
Alec Burks	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.37	2	-6	8	15.0	18.0	-2.97	16.4	11.9	4.46
Draymond Green	70	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-4	4	15.1	17.5	-2.34	15.8	13.6	2.23
Glenn Robinson III	78	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	15.3	17.8	-2.57	15.4	14.5	0.89

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	64	65	1.05	-0.55	1.61	0.50	19	-15	34	13.2	18.4	-5.29	16.6	14.6	2.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	73	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.51	9	-5	14	15.5	14.3	1.17	15.6	16.7	-1.14
Derrick White	49	51	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	-5	14	13.3	16.8	-3.51	17.8	14.0	3.78
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	8	-12	15.4	14.4	0.95	15.0	18.0	-2.93
Bryn Forbes	57	58	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.43	-6	10	-16	17.1	12.6	4.48	15.9	15.9	0.05
Trey Lyles	30	29	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	2	0	17.0	14.4	2.61	15.4	16.1	-0.62
Lonnie Walker IV	20	22	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.06	3	1	2	15.7	15.0	0.71	17.0	15.6	1.41
Rudy Gay	36	38	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	3	-2	13.6	16.0	-2.39	16.8	15.4	1.38
Marco Belinelli	24	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	5	-6	15.1	15.1	-0.06	14.8	16.2	-1.43
Dejounte Murray	55	53	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	11	-18	16.5	13.6	2.88	13.9	18.0	-4.06
Jakob Poeltl	30	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.15	-5	9	-14	14.3	15.5	-1.17	16.7	15.6	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.47,0.29,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.45,0.27,0.46,0.69,0.78,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.17,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.97,1,1	91.2%
SAS 118, DAL 123	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.32,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.69,0.92,1	89.9%
SAS 74, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.99,1	89.5%