NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	116		Excitement	12.6 [15]		MVP	Ben Simmons (PHI): +67.8%
Miami Heat	117		Comeback	39.6 [43]		LVP	Tobias Harris (PHI): -29.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Simmons	0.68	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.68	0.00	0.67	-0.00	12	50%	0.71	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Joel Embiid	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.55,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.24	0.06	0.01	16	80%	0.65	3	-0.36	12	92%	0.04
James Ennis III	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	8	69%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.07	0.04	-0.13	-0.02	10	63%	0.17	3	-0.25	7	57%	-0.25
Furkan Korkmaz	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	8	31%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.3	-0.05	-0.24	0.01	15	35%	-0.30	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.55,0.55,0.55	0.55	0.05	0.48	-0.01	14	57%	0.59	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.23	0.00	16	51%	0.29	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.04	0.02	6	133%	0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.11	0.11	-0.04	0.15	-0.00	14	37%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.08,-0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.10	0.01	21	45%	0.11	0	0.00	14	79%	-0.07
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	59%	0.10	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	0.3	31.8	13.7	28.7	1.8	36.1	1.8	13.1	154.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -36.6%

MIA +49.9%

PHI -11.9%

MIA +53.0%

PHI -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.2	110.5	111.4	109.6
season	14.8	14.7		110.0	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.1		108.9	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
PHI	14.6	15.6	14.5	17.0	14.6	15.3
MIA	16.0	13.7	13.8	15.1	18.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	40	39	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.21	15	-16	31	14.8	15.6	-0.78	15.8	14.5	1.29
Furkan Korkmaz	40	39	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.15	9	-10	19	13.7	16.3	-2.51	14.7	15.2	-0.46
Trey Burke	39	39	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.29	13	-14	27	17.6	14.0	3.64	17.0	13.8	3.21
Josh Richardson	77	80	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.41	10	-11	21	15.5	14.9	0.61	15.0	14.8	0.29
Joel Embiid	69	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.54	11	-12	23	15.2	15.6	-0.38	15.2	14.4	0.81
James Ennis III	43	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	10	-21	14.3	16.0	-1.74	15.7	14.5	1.23
Tobias Harris	72	72	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.30	-15	14	-29	15.9	13.9	1.99	14.3	16.5	-2.28
Al Horford	56	55	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.01	-25	24	-49	15.7	14.9	0.76	13.9	16.2	-2.29
Ben Simmons	89	88	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.43	-12	11	-23	14.9	17.3	-2.37	14.5	17.5	-2.97

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	84	84	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.39	18	-17	35	14.4	17.2	-2.76	15.2	15.6	-0.33
Duncan Robinson	36	38	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.09	16	-15	31	14.7	15.1	-0.44	15.6	15.1	0.43
Meyers Leonard	65	64	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.19	19	-18	37	13.8	17.0	-3.22	14.1	17.1	-3.02
Tyler Herro	65	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.65	-11	12	-23	15.8	13.6	2.19	15.5	14.9	0.61
Kendrick Nunn	44	42	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.10	14	-13	27	15.9	14.3	1.56	15.4	15.3	0.09
Bam Adebayo	75	76	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.43	-7	8	-15	15.5	13.6	1.93	15.9	13.7	2.28
Goran Dragic	70	71	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.53	-15	16	-31	15.0	15.0	-0.07	14.9	16.1	-1.20
Derrick Jones Jr.	74	73	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.39	-13	14	-27	15.0	14.9	0.16	15.5	14.9	0.57
Kelly Olynyk	12	12	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.15	-16	17	-33	14.9	15.0	-0.07	17.0	15.1	1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.8,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.15,0.02,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 108, MIL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.69,0.54,0.23,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.42,1	88.8%
MIL 107, IND 112	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.29,0.22,0.27,1	88.6%
ATL 111, CLE 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.8,0.91,0.79,0.65,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.32,0.16,0.46,0.39,0.78,0.67,0.58,1	87.4%