NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	121		Excitement	8.9 [178]		MVP	Norman Powell (TOR): +48.8%
Toronto Raptors	110		Comeback	1.5 [396]		LVP	Kendrick Nunn (MIA): -24.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.21	0.04	0.02	11	100%	0.28	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.10	-0.02	17	50%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.02	16	56%	0.20	3	-0.09	7	86%	-0.05
Kelly Olynyk	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.08	0.04	12	62%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Meyers Leonard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.02	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	13	60%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Tyler Herro	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	7	40%	0.00	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.19	-0.10	-0.03	16	21%	-0.17	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49	0.49	0.14	0.35	0.00	14	72%	0.53	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.02	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	16	49%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Terence Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	0.01	-0.02	18	27%	-0.09	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.08
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.04	-0.17	0.00	14	44%	-0.13	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	30.4	15.5	28.3	2.4	37.5	2.5	12.6	153.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.9%

TOR -7.7%

MIA +12.2%

TOR -2.5%

MIA +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	13.8	14.2	110.0	100.0	109.6
season	14.7	14.0		111.7	109.9
opponent	14.5	14.5		104.2	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.1	14.0	15.7	16.2	14.5	15.1
TOR	16.2	12.2	14.3	14.3	10.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	81	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	1	9	15.2	15.1	0.09	14.5	12.0	2.47
Justise Winslow	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	3	5	15.5	14.5	1.01	13.2	15.0	-1.81
Bam Adebayo	77	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	1	9	15.1	15.1	0.02	14.6	12.0	2.64
Jimmy Butler	86	86	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	-1	13	14.9	16.0	-1.16	13.6	14.2	-0.61
Meyers Leonard	33	32	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	3	5	15.2	15.1	0.02	17.0	12.4	4.55
Derrick Jones Jr.	34	37	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	10	-9	15.2	15.1	0.10	12.2	14.6	-2.39
Duncan Robinson	53	56	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.13	11	0	11	14.7	15.5	-0.77	14.9	12.6	2.21
Kelly Olynyk	76	77	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.07	3	8	-5	15.1	15.2	-0.14	12.4	17.1	-4.70
Tyler Herro	38	36	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	19	-27	15.6	14.9	0.64	12.1	14.6	-2.47

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terence Davis	31	31	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.11	12	-23	35	12.6	14.2	-1.66	16.0	14.8	1.16
OG Anunoby	43	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-8	5	15.3	12.8	2.59	14.5	15.5	-0.98
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	36	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-8	5	13.0	14.2	-1.19	15.7	14.9	0.82
Serge Ibaka	46	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-7	3	13.2	14.2	-0.92	15.5	14.9	0.60
Marc Gasol	68	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-5	-1	14.1	13.2	0.94	15.1	15.1	0.02
Norman Powell	71	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-4	-3	12.9	15.3	-2.38	15.5	14.4	1.08
Pascal Siakam	80	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.03	-15	4	-19	14.2	12.7	1.43	14.8	16.0	-1.13
Fred VanVleet	90	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.04	-15	4	-19	13.8	13.5	0.33	14.9	16.2	-1.30
Kyle Lowry	85	85	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.24	-14	3	-17	14.0	12.9	1.10	14.9	15.9	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.46,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.34,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.15,0.29,0.28,0.54,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.02,0	90.2%
MIA 93, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.08,0.08,0	89.8%
CLE 91, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.27,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.27,0	89.6%