NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	5.7 [641]		MVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): +15.8%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.0 [910]		LVP	Grant Williams (BOS): -13.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.16	0.08	0.13	0.05	15	58%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Javonte Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brad Wanamaker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	8	70%	0.13	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.05	0.01	16	43%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
Robert Williams III	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Carsen Edwards	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.01	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Grant Williams	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.02	11	61%	0.22	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.12	0.00	18	58%	0.22	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	45%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	17	47%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	12	62%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.7	34.4	15.8	25.5	1.7	42.3	142.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +10.8%

DEN +15.5%

DEN +23.8%

BOS -1.9%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	15.3	14.2	93.9	96.0	109.6
season	14.5	15.0		112.0	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.4		110.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.8	14.8	14.0	9.8	13.8
DEN	13.9	15.2	15.4	16.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Javonte Green	22	20	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.15	11	-15	26	10.2	14.8	-4.55	15.5	15.3	0.22
Grant Williams	33	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-12	20	12.3	14.5	-2.14	15.7	15.1	0.65
Brad Wanamaker	55	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.58	18	-22	40	12.3	15.7	-3.42	16.1	14.2	1.95
Robert Williams III	29	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.15	2	-6	8	13.0	14.1	-1.07	17.2	14.5	2.69
Carsen Edwards	13	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-1	-2	16.5	13.3	3.21	13.3	15.7	-2.34
Kemba Walker	25	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	5	-14	15.7	13.1	2.64	14.0	15.7	-1.68
Enes Kanter	28	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-3	2	15.0	13.3	1.69	14.4	15.7	-1.29
Daniel Theis	36	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	1	-6	14.9	13.1	1.75	15.6	15.1	0.50
Semi Ojeleye	42	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	1	-6	14.9	12.9	1.97	15.1	15.5	-0.34
Jaylen Brown	74	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-3	2	13.7	14.0	-0.38	15.6	14.4	1.24
Marcus Smart	66	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	8	-20	13.8	13.7	0.05	15.5	14.9	0.66
Jayson Tatum	67	68	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.04	-23	19	-42	14.2	12.8	1.34	14.2	17.7	-3.53

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	65	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-14	32	14.2	17.5	-3.33	13.8	13.7	0.11
Will Barton	70	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-9	22	15.7	14.5	1.17	13.6	14.0	-0.40
Gary Harris	70	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-12	28	14.5	17.3	-2.78	13.8	13.5	0.33
Nikola Jokic	71	74	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-6	16	15.5	14.9	0.60	13.6	14.1	-0.49
Jamal Murray	79	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	-4	12	15.1	16.0	-0.86	13.7	13.8	-0.04
Monte Morris	21	19	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	8	-12	16.0	15.1	0.86	13.8	13.7	0.04
Mason Plumlee	26	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	8	-12	16.5	14.9	1.59	14.7	13.5	1.23
Juancho Hernangomez	38	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.31	-12	16	-28	16.8	14.4	2.33	13.9	13.7	0.29
Jerami Grant	38	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.41	-16	20	-36	16.2	14.8	1.39	13.3	14.0	-0.70
Michael Porter Jr.	22	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.19	-9	13	-22	14.4	15.6	-1.23	13.5	13.8	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.98,1	93.5%
CHI 103, ATL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.96,1	92.8%
ATL 94, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.82,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.8,0.96,1	92.7%