NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	103		Excitement	6.5 [482]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +29.4%
Atlanta Hawks	106		Comeback	1.1 [914]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -18.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.01,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.28	0.03	0.22	-0.03	13	60%	0.35	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Aaron Gray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	3	70%	0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Kirk Hinrich	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.12	-0.01	0.07	12	68%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.04	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.01	-0.05	10	41%	0.01	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	28%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	6	50%	-0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	10	50%	-0.05	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.30	0.03	0.03	15	94%	0.29	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.12	0.02	7	73%	0.24	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.08
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.09	-0.01	9	57%	0.14	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.13	0.06	-0.11	24	35%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	10	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.16
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.00	10	39%	-0.06	5	-0.13	11	55%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	1.7	33.0	15.0	28.8	2.5	38.5	150.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +19.3%

ATL +3.2%

ATL +23.1%

ATL +3.1%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.4	15.4	107.3	110.4	105.7
season	15.0	15.4		102.2	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.5		107.2	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	16.7	14.0	12.3	14.6
ATL	15.5	13.4	18.9	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	59	60	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.61	19	-22	41	13.6	16.3	-2.71	15.4	15.4	0.06
Aaron Gray	26	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-11	19	12.0	15.6	-3.57	14.1	15.9	-1.81
Tyrus Thomas	6	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	3	-9	13.5	14.7	-1.18	17.4	15.2	2.19
Thabo Sefolosha	53	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.41	7	-10	17	14.0	15.3	-1.35	14.4	16.7	-2.33
Chris Duhon	47	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.38	5	-8	13	14.4	14.8	-0.31	13.4	17.4	-4.04
Andres Nocioni	51	51	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.39	5	-8	13	13.1	16.4	-3.30	15.0	15.8	-0.84
Joakim Noah	36	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	4	-11	15.7	13.9	1.83	16.6	14.7	1.90
Luol Deng	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	3	-9	15.5	12.9	2.67	15.6	15.0	0.57
Kirk Hinrich	60	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	6	-15	15.2	13.5	1.72	16.1	14.2	1.92
Drew Gooden	46	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	11	-25	16.1	13.2	2.89	16.3	14.6	1.66
Larry Hughes	34	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	14	-31	16.0	13.9	2.12	17.1	14.6	2.50

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	70	71	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-15	33	14.7	17.2	-2.52	15.2	12.9	2.33
Mike Bibby	81	83	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-10	23	15.8	13.4	2.37	14.6	14.5	0.08
Joe Johnson	91	91	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-1	5	14.8	25.4	-10.55	15.0	7.8	7.18
Al Horford	48	49	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-5	13	15.7	15.1	0.58	14.4	14.8	-0.36
Josh Smith	68	70	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	-4	11	15.9	14.1	1.77	15.0	13.4	1.62
Josh Childress	74	71	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.63	-17	20	-37	15.4	15.2	0.22	13.6	17.5	-3.94
Jeremy Richardson	2	1	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	1	1	12.0	15.5	-3.47	8.0	14.7	-6.67
Mario West	3	3	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	5	-7	1.7	15.8	-14.17	13.3	14.6	-1.31
Zaza Pachulia	33	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.19	-8	11	-19	16.8	14.7	2.08	13.8	15.0	-1.23
Acie Law	10	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.15	-10	13	-23	17.2	15.2	2.01	15.7	14.5	1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, UTA 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.69,0.55,0.68,0.95,1	93.2%
CLE 99, NJN 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.65,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.6%
MIL 98, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.78,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%