NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	7.5 [405]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +38.5%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	191.3 [22]		LVP	Tyus Jones (MIN): -11.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cameron Reynolds	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.05	0.01	11	86%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
C.J. Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	2	150%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Terrell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Okogie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	13	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,-0.07	0.10	-0.15	0.01	20	61%	0.15	2	-0.22	1	0%	-0.02
Gorgui Dieng	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	20	45%	0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	12	33%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.39	0.39	0.04	0.35	0.01	12	61%	0.44	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	26	54%	0.11	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.05
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	7	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	11	52%	-0.01	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	10	45%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	23.9	13.7	23.6	1.8	36.2	125.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +12.1%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +19.0%

DEN +11.6%

MIN -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	14.4	14.3	96.9	102.1	109.3
season	14.4	14.8		110.2	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.0		108.1	111.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	13.5	15.5	17.2	15.2
DEN	12.8	14.8	14.5	15.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
C.J. Williams	32	33	0.53	-1.03	1.56	0.20	11	-15	26	14.7	15.4	-0.78	16.9	13.0	3.83
Keita Bates-Diop	36	34	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.13	6	-10	16	15.1	15.3	-0.20	16.8	13.0	3.76
Anthony Tolliver	43	42	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.08	5	-9	14	14.2	16.0	-1.78	14.8	14.0	0.77
Jared Terrell	11	10	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-6	8	15.5	15.1	0.41	15.3	14.2	1.06
Josh Okogie	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-1	-2	15.5	15.0	0.57	12.8	15.3	-2.48
Cameron Reynolds	51	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.45	6	-10	16	15.1	15.2	-0.10	15.3	13.3	2.07
Dario Saric	59	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-3	2	16.2	13.6	2.56	14.1	14.8	-0.68
Andrew Wiggins	75	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.40	-8	4	-12	15.3	14.8	0.47	14.1	15.3	-1.25
Tyus Jones	72	71	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.46	-19	15	-34	15.2	15.0	0.20	13.4	16.8	-3.41
Gorgui Dieng	74	73	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.51	-19	15	-34	14.9	16.1	-1.25	13.2	17.9	-4.68

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	67	68	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.47	17	-13	30	13.4	16.6	-3.21	15.2	15.0	0.22
Jamal Murray	69	71	0.95	-0.45	1.39	0.48	16	-12	28	13.6	16.2	-2.62	15.7	13.9	1.79
Nikola Jokic	74	76	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.37	16	-12	28	13.4	17.3	-3.81	15.4	14.5	0.88
Will Barton	69	69	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.47	9	-5	14	13.5	16.5	-3.07	15.4	14.7	0.65
Gary Harris	81	81	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-2	8	13.9	16.6	-2.72	15.0	16.2	-1.27
Malik Beasley	32	32	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.04	-9	13	-22	16.3	13.4	2.88	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Torrey Craig	25	25	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.02	-10	14	-24	16.6	13.6	3.08	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Monte Morris	40	41	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.14	-10	14	-24	16.5	12.8	3.74	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Mason Plumlee	28	27	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.05	-15	19	-34	17.1	13.2	3.83	15.1	15.2	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.59,0.48,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	92.1%
DAL 90, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.16,1	91.3%
PHI 105, CHA 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.19,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.27,1	90.9%