NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	121		Excitement	7.3 [433]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): +26.2%
Indiana Pacers	116		Comeback	4.0 [241]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (IND): -14.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26	0.16	0.12	0.03	15	74%	0.29	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	14	53%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Michael Carter-Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	6	77%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Khem Birch	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	7	71%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	0.00	5	90%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	8	70%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	18	47%	-0.02	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.09	0.02	15	71%	0.27	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	9	68%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	13	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
TJ Leaf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	17	61%	0.12	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	6	71%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	9	33%	-0.10	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	23.4	15.3	23.6	2.4	36.4	125.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.1%

ORL +4.0%

IND -10.1%

ORL +31.9%

IND -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	14.3	126.0	120.8	109.3
season	14.9	14.5		107.2	108.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		105.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	16.4	15.1	14.5	15.2
IND	14.3	15.7	14.3	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	54	57	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.21	21	-16	37	15.0	15.5	-0.52	15.4	13.9	1.42
Wes Iwundu	42	42	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-8	21	13.3	16.7	-3.42	15.6	14.2	1.39
Michael Carter-Williams	37	37	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.29	10	-5	15	13.1	16.5	-3.46	15.1	14.6	0.56
Khem Birch	31	33	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-8	21	14.1	15.8	-1.69	16.0	14.2	1.80
Aaron Gordon	75	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	4	-3	15.4	14.5	0.94	14.8	14.7	0.13
Nikola Vucevic	65	63	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.18	-8	13	-21	15.8	14.1	1.69	14.2	16.0	-1.80
Evan Fournier	66	64	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.30	-13	18	-31	15.7	14.2	1.42	13.6	17.1	-3.45
D.J. Augustin	59	59	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	10	-15	16.5	13.1	3.46	14.6	15.1	-0.56
Jonathan Isaac	53	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	13	-21	15.5	14.8	0.76	14.6	15.0	-0.46

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	64	66	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.25	12	-17	29	14.2	15.9	-1.72	16.0	13.6	2.39
TJ Leaf	10	11	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-8	11	13.2	15.0	-1.78	13.4	15.4	-2.08
Bojan Bogdanovic	64	64	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.19	8	-13	21	14.3	15.7	-1.39	15.8	14.0	1.81
Darren Collison	65	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-8	11	14.4	15.6	-1.17	15.5	14.6	0.93
Myles Turner	66	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.20	1	-6	7	14.3	15.8	-1.47	15.5	14.6	0.88
Thaddeus Young	60	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-7	9	15.2	14.0	1.22	16.1	13.7	2.35
Doug McDermott	26	26	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	4	-13	15.6	14.5	1.08	14.1	15.6	-1.50
Cory Joseph	37	36	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	7	-19	15.7	14.2	1.48	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Domantas Sabonis	54	53	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	8	-21	15.3	14.1	1.20	14.1	16.5	-2.40
Tyreke Evans	34	31	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.10	-20	15	-35	15.6	14.4	1.23	13.8	15.9	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.4,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 84, ATL 79	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.6,0.5,0.35,0.38,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.05,0	93.2%
ATL 105, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.27,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%
SAS 99, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.09,0.08,0	92.4%