NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	9.0 [174]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +71.6%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	13.1 [306]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -17.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.03,-0.19,0.17	-0.05	0.22	0.00	23	45%	0.38	3	-0.20	7	43%	-0.16
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	90%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	10	64%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Salah Mejri	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,-0.05,-0.05	0.07	-0.14	-0.02	15	57%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	0.09	-0.15	0.01	15	65%	-0.00	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.72	0.72	-0.02	0.73	-0.01	9	50%	0.77	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.07
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.26	0.03	0.03	19	79%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.09	-0.00	13	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	7	56%	0.03	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.8	29.8	15.7	24.6	3.5	31.6	132.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.8%

DAL -9.4%

DAL -9.6%

DAL -2.1%

DEN +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	14.3	107.6	109.9	109.3
season	14.7	14.8		108.5	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.1		108.1	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.8	15.4	15.9	19.0	16.7
DEN	17.5	12.3	14.7	15.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	66	68	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.18	-2	1	-3	17.1	15.7	1.41	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Dirk Nowitzki	39	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	3	-7	17.0	16.4	0.58	14.1	15.3	-1.24
Justin Jackson	11	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	0	-1	17.3	16.6	0.69	13.5	15.0	-1.53
Salah Mejri	16	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	2	-5	16.9	16.6	0.33	17.6	14.2	3.35
Tim Hardaway Jr.	69	69	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.55	14	-15	29	16.3	17.8	-1.55	15.5	12.7	2.74
Courtney Lee	3	2	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	5	-11	23.3	16.4	6.90	12.5	14.9	-2.35
Jalen Brunson	74	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.56	13	-14	27	16.1	19.2	-3.11	15.5	11.8	3.74
Devin Harris	20	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	8	-17	17.0	16.6	0.43	12.7	15.4	-2.63
Dwight Powell	71	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-6	11	16.3	18.0	-1.79	14.4	16.1	-1.73
Maxi Kleber	55	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.52	0	-1	1	16.8	16.5	0.30	15.2	14.3	0.93
Dorian Finney-Smith	36	33	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.56	-12	11	-23	17.1	16.4	0.78	14.1	15.2	-1.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	57	58	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.47	16	-15	31	14.2	15.8	-1.58	17.7	14.9	2.73
Nikola Jokic	59	58	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.93	-12	13	-25	15.5	13.6	1.86	15.6	18.5	-2.87
Jamal Murray	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.48	3	-2	5	14.3	16.8	-2.49	16.5	17.3	-0.77
Paul Millsap	67	69	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.48	3	-2	5	15.1	14.0	1.09	16.6	16.9	-0.28
Gary Harris	52	51	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.62	-11	12	-23	15.7	13.6	2.08	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Malik Beasley	39	41	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.14	12	-11	23	13.6	15.7	-2.08	17.4	16.0	1.40
Juancho Hernangomez	11	12	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	-3	7	14.2	14.9	-0.71	18.9	16.3	2.59
Mason Plumlee	45	45	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.43	7	-6	13	13.7	15.9	-2.25	17.5	15.8	1.70
Will Barton	51	51	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	-0.01	-17	18	-35	16.1	13.1	3.04	15.7	17.8	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 77, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	91.2%
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	90.8%
GSW 112, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.45,0.32,0.28,1	90.5%