NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	8.7 [219]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): +30.7%
Utah Jazz	115		Comeback	63.5 [49]		LVP	D.J. Wilson (MIL): -18.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.25	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.25	0.12	0.11	-0.02	26	61%	0.35	4	-0.10	19	58%	-0.13
Brook Lopez	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.01	8	100%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Khris Middleton	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.07,-0.04	-0.01	-0.07	-0.04	24	51%	0.06	5	-0.11	9	100%	0.09
Nikola Mirotic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	7	21%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	8	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.14,0.08,0.26,0.31	0.31	0.15	0.16	0.01	32	59%	0.37	3	-0.06	14	79%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.19,0.19,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.08	0.01	12	82%	0.39	2	-0.16	4	75%	0.01
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.10	-0.03	12	58%	0.19	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	87%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.04	-0.03	9	19%	-0.14	1	-0.02	8	12%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.3	28.7	15.2	28.5	2.3	35.7	140.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +52.3%

MIL -10.4%

UTA +9.8%

MIL -1.1%

MIL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	UTA	NBA	MIL	UTA	NBA
this game	13.7	13.8	14.3	105.7	110.6	109.3
season	13.5	14.3		112.4	109.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		105.2	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.8	12.8	14.0	13.7
UTA	13.7	14.6	13.9	13.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	58	58	0.41	-0.91	1.33	-0.06	16	-20	36	13.4	14.1	-0.69	15.1	12.3	2.79
Brook Lopez	68	66	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.31	16	-20	36	12.9	15.3	-2.43	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	72	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.41	19	-23	42	12.5	16.7	-4.12	14.2	12.9	1.34
Christian Wood	14	14	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.11	-1	-3	2	13.8	13.7	0.07	15.4	13.6	1.84
D.J. Wilson	36	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	8	-20	14.8	13.2	1.60	12.0	14.8	-2.81
Ersan Ilyasova	41	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-7	10	14.4	13.3	1.09	14.3	13.5	0.75
Isaiah Canaan	19	20	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	10	-24	15.8	13.3	2.52	13.7	13.9	-0.17
Khris Middleton	80	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.68	3	-7	10	13.2	15.2	-1.99	13.5	15.0	-1.55
Pat Connaughton	79	77	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.28	-20	16	-36	13.8	13.6	0.20	13.5	14.7	-1.22
Tony Snell	55	54	-0.99	0.49	-1.47	-0.11	-30	26	-56	15.4	11.9	3.56	13.6	14.1	-0.55

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Favors	69	69	1.21	-0.71	1.92	0.36	29	-25	54	13.4	14.7	-1.28	14.0	13.2	0.76
Kyle Korver	77	74	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.06	30	-26	56	13.6	14.4	-0.72	14.3	12.3	1.99
Donovan Mitchell	85	87	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.43	10	-6	16	13.2	16.5	-3.23	13.4	15.3	-1.94
Jae Crowder	70	71	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-8	20	13.1	15.3	-2.21	13.2	14.9	-1.76
Joe Ingles	70	70	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.56	-12	16	-28	14.5	12.5	1.99	13.3	14.6	-1.27
Royce O'Neale	42	45	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	-5	14	12.8	14.5	-1.68	14.1	13.5	0.60
Thabo Sefolosha	22	22	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	0	4	16.0	13.3	2.69	16.4	13.0	3.40
Ricky Rubio	43	44	-0.59	1.09	-1.68	0.17	-26	30	-56	14.9	13.1	1.86	13.6	13.8	-0.27
Rudy Gobert	42	43	-0.88	1.38	-2.26	0.17	-36	40	-76	15.0	13.1	1.91	13.0	14.2	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.25,0.3,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.52,0.28,0.33,0.84,1	89.7%
SAC 113, DAL 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.39,0.75,0.71,0.91,0.98,1	88.0%
CHA 91, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.21,0.32,0.85,1	87.2%