NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	6.3 [597]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +13.0%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	1.4 [884]		LVP	Thon Maker (DET): -9.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Langston Galloway	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	8	69%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	8	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	18	59%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.04	10	55%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	14	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Blake Griffin	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	18	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kennard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	12	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.02	-0.04	22	52%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	10	85%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.00	13	53%	0.18	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.04	0.03	12	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	6	65%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	2	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	79%	0.12	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	26.6	15.3	24.6	2.4	26.5	122.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +53.6%

SAS +10.2%

SAS +1.6%

DET -14.5%

DET -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	16.6	14.1	14.3	98.9	111.7	109.3
season	15.3	14.8		107.5	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.0		110.4	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.5	15.0	18.9	15.2	16.6
SAS	14.5	13.3	13.8	14.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	20	18	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-16	20	15.3	16.9	-1.62	14.4	14.0	0.40
Thon Maker	30	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	15.7	17.0	-1.33	13.7	14.2	-0.59
Ish Smith	37	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-13	14	15.5	17.3	-1.75	13.9	14.2	-0.28
Langston Galloway	42	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-8	4	16.1	16.9	-0.82	13.9	14.2	-0.33
Bruce Brown	38	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-9	6	17.1	16.2	0.89	14.2	14.0	0.25
Wayne Ellington	46	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.18	-1	-11	10	16.5	16.7	-0.19	14.0	14.1	-0.05
Reggie Jackson	57	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	1	-14	17.3	15.5	1.75	14.2	13.9	0.28
Blake Griffin	67	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	2	-16	16.9	15.8	1.07	14.1	13.9	0.20
Andre Drummond	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	2	-16	17.0	15.2	1.85	14.1	14.0	0.14
Luke Kennard	62	61	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	4	-20	16.6	16.5	0.16	14.1	14.0	0.15

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	72	70	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.13	17	-5	22	14.0	14.3	-0.27	17.0	15.2	1.78
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-3	18	14.5	12.5	1.99	16.8	15.9	0.92
Marco Belinelli	67	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.09	16	-4	20	14.4	13.2	1.23	16.7	16.4	0.26
Jakob Poeltl	67	67	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.20	4	8	-4	13.5	15.4	-1.94	17.0	15.6	1.38
Derrick White	56	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	8	-4	14.9	12.8	2.05	16.9	16.1	0.87
Patty Mills	38	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	4	4	12.8	14.9	-2.05	16.1	16.9	-0.87
Rudy Gay	42	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.03	6	6	0	13.7	14.4	-0.67	15.7	17.3	-1.55
Davis Bertans	30	32	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	10	-8	13.6	14.3	-0.63	16.0	16.9	-0.87
Bryn Forbes	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	15	-18	14.9	13.9	0.98	18.4	16.3	2.11
Dante Cunningham	11	12	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.07	-9	21	-30	14.6	14.0	0.65	12.7	17.1	-4.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.92,1	93.7%
NJN 81, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.86,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	92.8%
CLE 96, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.94,1,1,1	92.6%