NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	82		Excitement	7.1 [375]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +12.9%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	1.2 [814]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -24.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Madsen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	7	62%	0.08	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.04	0.00	20	52%	0.10	5	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01
Devean George	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	6	21%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.14,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.24	-0.06	-0.17	0.00	38	47%	-0.06	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.11	-0.02	9	58%	0.13	1	-0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	10	54%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	67%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	10	36%	-0.12	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.18	-0.02	-0.06	6	0%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.11	0.02	22	48%	-0.12	3	-0.11	14	57%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	4.3	29.0	20.0	27.0	3.5	39.5	150.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +12.8%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +4.2%

SAS +32.0%

SAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	15.5	85.4	90.6	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		105.0	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		96.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.5	13.8	14.5	15.3	15.2
SAS	13.8	15.0	15.5	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	26	26	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.06	11	-16	27	12.5	16.2	-3.69	17.4	13.8	3.58
Samaki Walker	11	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-6	7	14.4	15.3	-0.98	13.5	14.9	-1.49
Brian Shaw	48	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-6	7	13.2	17.2	-4.04	15.4	14.1	1.34
Devean George	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	7	-19	16.6	12.9	3.69	14.3	15.7	-1.39
Kobe Bryant	89	89	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-6	7	15.3	13.7	1.63	15.0	12.0	2.99
Shaquille O'Neal	77	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	3	-11	15.9	12.6	3.30	14.5	15.7	-1.17
Derek Fisher	90	89	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	0	-5	15.3	14.5	0.78	14.5	17.7	-3.17
Robert Horry	78	79	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	9	-23	15.6	13.6	1.99	14.3	16.8	-2.49

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	67	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-6	17	14.1	16.4	-2.33	16.4	12.6	3.74
David Robinson	59	58	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-6	17	14.1	15.9	-1.78	16.3	13.5	2.82
Tim Duncan	86	86	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-2	9	14.7	15.3	-0.59	16.1	8.0	8.07
Bruce Bowen	79	80	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	3	-1	14.6	15.5	-0.92	15.4	14.2	1.18
Stephen Jackson	51	50	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	-5	15	14.7	14.8	-0.05	16.8	13.5	3.32
Manu Ginobili	62	62	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.34	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.4	0.65	13.7	18.0	-4.34
Malik Rose	33	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	9	-13	15.3	14.5	0.81	12.6	16.7	-4.09
Danny Ferry	10	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	19.0	14.3	4.72	11.7	15.6	-3.93
Kevin Willis	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.04	-1	6	-7	11.2	14.9	-3.67	11.7	15.4	-3.63
Speedy Claxton	27	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	11	-17	16.4	14.1	2.33	12.6	16.4	-3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 115, NYK 128	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.7,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
DET 93, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.97,1,1	93.7%
GSW 96, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.96,1,1	93.2%