NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	125		Excitement	9.2 [156]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +96.7%
Miami Heat	126		Comeback	35.6 [38]		LVP	Derrick Jones Jr. (MIA): -11.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.41	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.30	0.18	0.07	23	77%	0.41	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.45,0.36	0.09	0.28	0.01	21	56%	0.46	2	-0.10	10	80%	-0.03
Jordan Bell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.08	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.02
Andre Iguodala	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damion Lee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shaun Livingston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.11,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.08	0.02	20	56%	0.15	3	-0.20	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.97	0.97	0.11	0.87	0.01	17	74%	1.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.22	-0.00	0.01	11	87%	0.24	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.03
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.36,0.25,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.01	0.00	14	70%	0.25	1	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.10
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.03	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,-0.08	-0.08	0.10	-0.15	0.02	10	68%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	0.3	28.3	16.0	30.2	2.4	37.8	145.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.7%

GSW -14.3%

MIA +17.0%

GSW -0.9%

MIA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	13.4	15.4	14.3	125.0	126.0	109.3
season	13.4	14.8		114.5	106.3
opponent	14.3	15.0		106.7	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	12.5	11.8	14.8	13.4
MIA	15.0	14.6	16.3	15.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	44	46	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.18	5	-6	11	14.3	12.7	1.61	16.9	14.2	2.71
Alfonzo McKinnie	7	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	4	-9	13.7	13.3	0.37	14.4	15.5	-1.15
Damion Lee	5	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.12	-8	7	-15	13.8	13.3	0.45	8.8	15.8	-6.98
Kevon Looney	28	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.12	-8	7	-15	14.0	13.1	0.87	14.2	15.9	-1.69
Klay Thompson	78	77	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.47	12	-13	25	13.2	13.9	-0.63	15.9	14.0	1.86
Jonas Jerebko	35	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	3	-7	13.1	13.5	-0.35	15.4	15.4	-0.03
Quinn Cook	24	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	4	-9	13.2	13.4	-0.27	16.7	15.0	1.70
Shaun Livingston	31	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	10	-21	14.4	12.9	1.52	15.8	15.3	0.52
Stephen Curry	71	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-6	11	13.5	13.1	0.42	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Kevin Durant	81	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.44	3	-4	7	13.4	13.3	0.07	15.3	15.9	-0.64
Andre Iguodala	53	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.73	8	-9	17	13.0	13.8	-0.75	15.1	15.8	-0.66
Jordan Bell	43	42	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.81	3	-4	7	11.9	14.5	-2.53	15.0	15.8	-0.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	49	49	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.57	7	-6	13	14.8	16.0	-1.24	14.0	12.8	1.16
Kelly Olynyk	61	60	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.57	1	0	1	15.7	14.9	0.79	13.4	13.2	0.20
Dwyane Wade	55	54	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.66	-7	8	-15	15.7	15.1	0.54	12.7	14.1	-1.41
Goran Dragic	43	44	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-12	25	15.2	15.6	-0.47	12.9	13.7	-0.78
Justise Winslow	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	2	-3	15.1	16.1	-0.96	13.5	13.1	0.43
Josh Richardson	76	77	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.62	-10	11	-21	16.3	12.7	3.58	13.1	14.3	-1.16
Rodney McGruder	39	37	0.23	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	-7	15	14.7	15.9	-1.17	13.2	13.5	-0.29
Udonis Haslem	12	12	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	0	1	14.9	15.5	-0.58	14.1	13.3	0.81
Derrick Jones Jr.	35	35	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	2	-3	15.3	15.5	-0.13	13.5	13.3	0.27
Bam Adebayo	65	66	-0.65	1.15	-1.80	-0.47	-6	7	-13	15.5	15.3	0.18	13.7	12.7	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.54,0.81,0.45,0.32,0.09,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, LAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.82,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.57,0.27,1	91.4%
NYK 109, BKN 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.76,0.67,0.61,0.28,0.15,0.17,1	90.8%
WAS 93, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.28,0.06,0.28,1	90.0%