NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	111		Excitement	7.9 [323]		MVP	Jeff Teague (MIN): +28.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	121		Comeback	2.9 [302]		LVP	Derrick Rose (MIN): -6.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.08	-0.02	13	48%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Eric Gordon	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.01	13	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.05	-0.03	34	58%	0.24	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	11	59%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	46%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.14	0.03	16	75%	0.31	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24	0.23	0.13	0.12	0.01	18	69%	0.27	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	15	50%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Dario Saric	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.05	0.04	9	79%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	9	54%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	13	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.4	24.6	15.3	29.4	2.7	29.4	129.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +52.8%

HOU -8.4%

HOU -3.9%

MIN +8.6%

MIN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIN	NBA	HOU	MIN	NBA
this game	15.7	14.6	14.3	116.8	127.4	109.3
season	14.8	14.4		114.0	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.4		111.8	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.9	17.2	14.5	17.6	15.7
MIN	13.8	14.1	13.2	18.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	32	34	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.13	6	-16	22	15.3	15.8	-0.50	13.6	15.2	-1.55
Chris Paul	72	74	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-14	18	14.4	19.5	-5.08	14.8	14.0	0.89
Eric Gordon	74	75	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-10	10	14.9	18.4	-3.54	14.6	14.6	-0.01
Iman Shumpert	43	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	3	-16	15.8	15.6	0.21	13.2	15.8	-2.59
Gerald Green	52	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	16.8	14.3	2.51	14.5	14.8	-0.31
Kenneth Faried	59	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	0	-10	16.2	14.9	1.31	15.2	13.8	1.41
James Harden	76	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.19	-14	4	-18	16.2	13.5	2.75	15.0	13.2	1.79
PJ Tucker	67	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.14	-17	7	-24	16.0	14.9	1.11	15.1	13.7	1.38

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl-Anthony Towns	65	66	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.16	20	-10	30	14.7	14.4	0.31	15.9	15.2	0.62
Jeff Teague	74	73	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-2	14	15.1	13.1	1.99	15.8	15.3	0.52
Luol Deng	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.05	15	-5	20	14.3	15.7	-1.45	15.4	16.5	-1.16
Josh Okogie	66	68	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	3	4	14.5	15.0	-0.56	15.0	17.4	-2.42
Derrick Rose	44	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	3	4	14.4	14.8	-0.39	15.1	16.2	-1.18
Dario Saric	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.13	4	6	-2	15.2	14.1	1.14	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Taj Gibson	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	10	-10	14.0	15.2	-1.24	16.5	14.9	1.58
Anthony Tolliver	25	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	8	-6	14.4	14.7	-0.38	15.9	15.6	0.27
Isaiah Canaan	10	9	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	10	-10	17.3	14.3	2.97	20.7	15.2	5.52
Gorgui Dieng	4	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	14	-18	15.0	14.6	0.37	12.8	15.8	-3.03
Jerryd Bayless	23	22	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.10	-13	23	-36	14.1	14.8	-0.68	16.6	15.4	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.48,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.41,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.9,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.73,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.5%
DAL 99, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.95,1	92.4%
SEA 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.95,0.91,1	92.3%