NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	5.3 [805]		MVP	Paul George (OKC): +28.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	118		Comeback	1.7 [776]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -10.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.21	0.01	0.05	7	112%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	14	56%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Khris Middleton	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.03	0.05	15	65%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.01	22	48%	0.09	4	-0.07	12	67%	-0.02
Tony Snell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
George Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Eric Bledsoe	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.00	14	39%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.08	-0.03	21	75%	0.36	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.02	10	64%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Terrance Ferguson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	52%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	57%	0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Abdel Nader	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.18	0.01	-0.06	20	31%	-0.04	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.3	29.7	14.4	29.5	3.4	35.6	139.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +43.0%

MIL -8.6%

OKC +7.7%

OKC +6.4%

OKC +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	OKC	NBA	MIL	OKC	NBA
this game	13.6	13.4	14.3	105.7	110.3	109.3
season	13.5	12.9		112.4	108.9
opponent	14.9	14.3		106.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.4	14.1	12.2	13.8	13.6
OKC	13.8	11.6	14.5	13.9	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	1	-8	16.8	13.3	3.53	11.8	13.6	-1.81
Malcolm Brogdon	71	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-10	14	13.8	13.2	0.60	13.2	13.9	-0.66
Khris Middleton	77	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.43	8	-14	22	12.6	16.2	-3.58	14.3	11.3	3.02
Tony Snell	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	13.3	13.7	-0.46	14.3	13.1	1.25
D.J. Wilson	36	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	2	-10	14.1	13.3	0.81	13.2	13.6	-0.40
Brook Lopez	67	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.17	-2	-4	2	13.7	13.5	0.14	13.0	14.4	-1.39
Eric Bledsoe	71	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-5	4	13.6	13.5	0.09	12.9	14.5	-1.60
George Hill	47	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	3	-12	13.4	13.8	-0.43	13.6	13.3	0.26
Sterling Brown	43	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	4	-14	14.4	13.0	1.37	13.8	13.2	0.67
Giannis Antetokounmpo	76	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-6	6	13.5	13.9	-0.41	13.4	13.6	-0.22

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	84	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.08	16	-10	26	13.3	14.0	-0.77	13.4	14.4	-0.97
Dennis Schroder	60	59	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	-4	14	13.8	13.0	0.75	14.1	13.0	1.16
Steven Adams	69	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	3	0	13.1	14.0	-0.91	14.1	12.7	1.36
Jerami Grant	76	75	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	13.1	14.3	-1.20	13.4	14.0	-0.56
Patrick Patterson	31	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	-1	8	14.3	13.1	1.20	14.0	13.4	0.56
Abdel Nader	34	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	1	4	13.2	13.6	-0.39	13.9	13.5	0.40
Nerlens Noel	38	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	3	0	14.0	13.1	0.91	12.7	14.1	-1.36
Terrance Ferguson	61	61	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	8	-10	13.5	13.4	0.12	13.6	13.7	-0.11
Russell Westbrook	82	80	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.43	-11	17	-28	13.4	13.4	-0.00	13.3	14.4	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
POR 94, HOU 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.85,0.85,0.92,1	95.4%
NJN 99, CHA 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%