NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

LA Clippers	111		Excitement	5.3 [793]		MVP	Tobias Harris (LAC): +8.9%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	2.1 [293]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -10.3%

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.00	0.06	19	72%	0.17	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Jerome Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	0.04	0.08	7	73%	0.04	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.07
Johnathan Motley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sindarius Thornwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Patrick Beverley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	10	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	15	49%	0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.07	13	71%	0.05	4	-0.08	5	40%	-0.07
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	11	54%	-0.00	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	10	55%	0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	0.7	26.3	14.5	25.4	1.7	33.3	126.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +24.9%

MIA -1.2%

LAC +4.0%

LAC +19.6%

LAC +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIA	NBA	LAC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	16.6	14.3	118.1	107.6	109.3
season	13.9	14.8		111.3	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.1		106.7	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	14.8	14.4	16.0	12.3	14.4
MIA	14.5	15.6	16.8	19.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Robinson	32	30	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	1	10	13.6	14.8	-1.13	18.1	15.9	2.15
Sindarius Thornwell	12	12	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	5	2	11.1	14.9	-3.77	21.5	15.9	5.61
Tobias Harris	76	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	5	2	14.8	12.5	2.32	16.4	17.7	-1.37
Montrezl Harrell	52	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	6	0	13.2	15.8	-2.64	16.5	16.8	-0.29
Avery Bradley	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	2	8	14.8	13.4	1.41	16.8	16.1	0.76
Marcin Gortat	42	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	6	0	15.8	13.2	2.64	16.8	16.5	0.29
Johnathan Motley	18	19	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	7	-2	12.5	14.8	-2.32	17.7	16.3	1.34
Lou Williams	43	42	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	8	-4	14.1	14.6	-0.43	15.9	17.3	-1.40
Patrick Beverley	66	65	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	9	-6	14.9	13.1	1.85	16.1	17.8	-1.64
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	62	60	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	11	-10	14.5	14.1	0.47	15.7	18.3	-2.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-8	4	15.7	16.9	-1.17	12.8	14.9	-2.05
Josh Richardson	72	73	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-11	10	15.8	19.5	-3.74	14.9	12.7	2.20
Hassan Whiteside	63	62	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-5	-2	16.6	16.6	0.05	14.7	13.7	1.04
Justise Winslow	59	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.03	-5	-7	2	16.8	16.3	0.54	14.8	13.6	1.27
James Johnson	48	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	16.4	16.8	-0.42	15.4	13.3	2.08
Dwyane Wade	46	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-6	0	16.3	16.9	-0.54	13.6	15.1	-1.51
Bam Adebayo	29	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-7	2	16.6	16.6	-0.05	13.7	14.7	-1.04
Dion Waiters	54	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-1	-10	16.9	16.2	0.79	13.7	15.5	-1.79
Tyler Johnson	66	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	1	-14	17.7	13.8	3.87	14.4	14.4	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.04,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
SEA 95, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	94.3%
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%