NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	108		Excitement	8.5 [242]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (TOR): +34.0%
Boston Celtics	117		Comeback	4.3 [361]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -15.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.34	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.34	0.22	0.15	0.02	19	67%	0.40	1	-0.06	11	100%	0.08
Norman Powell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	69%	0.14	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Green	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.10	-0.01	21	49%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Delon Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	10	43%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.13	0.03	12	89%	0.35	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.04,-0.02,0.09,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.16	-0.01	19	67%	0.39	7	-0.18	2	100%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.00	0.18	0.02	16	46%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.02	5	90%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.01	13	69%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	9	32%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.11	-0.03	9	32%	-0.11	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.2	28.4	15.3	26.6	3.3	30.6	132.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +71.3%

TOR -5.2%

TOR -26.2%

BOS +10.7%

TOR -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	14.3	110.2	119.4	109.3
season	14.3	13.9		111.5	109.9
opponent	14.7	14.5		106.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.3	18.0	13.5	15.1	14.9
BOS	13.4	12.0	17.8	14.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	36	35	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.25	-3	-6	3	16.1	14.3	1.75	14.8	14.2	0.61
Greg Monroe	30	29	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.29	-5	-4	-1	16.4	14.3	2.04	14.7	14.3	0.41
Norman Powell	43	43	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.27	-8	-1	-7	16.8	13.5	3.36	16.0	13.2	2.78
Delon Wright	22	22	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.22	-7	-2	-5	17.2	14.3	2.88	16.0	14.0	1.95
Pascal Siakam	78	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.48	1	-10	11	14.0	18.5	-4.46	14.3	15.0	-0.79
Kawhi Leonard	77	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	-6	3	14.4	17.0	-2.67	13.8	16.8	-3.02
Kyle Lowry	71	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.39	-7	-2	-5	14.4	16.4	-1.96	13.8	16.3	-2.54
Danny Green	63	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.45	-7	-2	-5	14.5	15.7	-1.15	14.4	14.5	-0.16
Serge Ibaka	70	72	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.50	-6	-3	-3	14.5	16.1	-1.67	14.3	14.7	-0.35

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	66	67	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.50	4	5	-1	14.1	15.1	-1.02	13.8	17.4	-3.52
Kyrie Irving	81	80	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.41	4	5	-1	13.9	17.2	-3.38	14.5	16.9	-2.44
Al Horford	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	7	-5	14.5	14.1	0.40	14.2	16.9	-2.77
Marcus Smart	66	64	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	3	3	13.9	15.5	-1.53	15.3	14.3	0.96
Marcus Morris	51	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.46	-6	15	-21	14.6	14.3	0.27	13.9	16.1	-2.23
Gordon Hayward	47	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.15	10	-1	11	15.2	13.7	1.45	15.5	14.5	1.00
Terry Rozier	36	36	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.21	8	1	7	15.5	13.8	1.72	16.9	13.8	3.02
Aron Baynes	27	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.22	7	2	5	14.1	14.5	-0.40	16.9	14.2	2.77
Jaylen Brown	45	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.31	10	-1	11	14.9	14.0	0.87	16.1	14.0	2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.77,0.78,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.23,0.63,0.66,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.59,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.76,0.96,1	90.4%
NOH 91, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.69,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.46,0.78,0.72,1	90.3%
CHA 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.31,0.46,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	89.7%