NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	9.3 [144]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +36.1%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	5.6 [210]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -25.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.32	0.08	0.27	0.02	21	60%	0.47	3	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Trey Lyles	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.12	0.00	8	94%	0.29	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.01	0.15	-0.01	11	48%	0.20	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Torrey Craig	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Goodwin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Monte Morris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.04	-0.13	-0.05	9	50%	0.13	3	-0.24	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.26,-0.25	-0.03	-0.20	0.03	19	43%	-0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.13,0.19,0.36	0.36	0.10	0.26	0.00	7	81%	0.36	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	10	68%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	10	48%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	2	-0.10	6	50%	-0.04
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.07	0.00	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	12	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	26.3	14.8	25.3	2.4	35.6	134.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +42.8%

DEN +6.5%

DEN +50.0%

MIA -51.3%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.6	14.3	109.6	105.3	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		112.0	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		106.7	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	15.7	16.5	14.6	15.0
MIA	16.5	15.6	16.2	14.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	77	77	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.45	9	-5	14	15.2	14.1	1.09	15.8	14.7	1.13
Paul Millsap	57	59	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.46	8	-4	12	15.6	14.2	1.40	15.6	15.7	-0.05
Malik Beasley	71	72	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-2	8	15.0	15.1	-0.16	15.5	16.1	-0.60
Torrey Craig	75	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	1	2	15.6	12.8	2.72	15.2	17.3	-2.05
Jamal Murray	61	61	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	15.2	14.6	0.62	15.5	15.8	-0.25
Juancho Hernangomez	17	18	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.04	2	2	0	14.0	15.2	-1.23	16.6	15.4	1.15
Brandon Goodwin	9	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	3	-2	12.7	15.3	-2.59	17.2	15.5	1.77
Mason Plumlee	23	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.12	-1	5	-6	13.7	15.5	-1.80	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Monte Morris	49	48	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	8	-12	14.7	15.3	-0.58	16.0	15.3	0.72
Trey Lyles	31	30	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.03	-8	12	-20	14.5	15.3	-0.74	15.6	15.7	-0.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	30	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-1	-2	17.4	14.8	2.60	15.7	14.7	1.03
James Johnson	30	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-1	-2	17.4	14.8	2.60	15.7	14.7	1.03
Hassan Whiteside	45	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.09	-6	2	-8	16.5	14.8	1.74	15.2	14.9	0.32
Tyler Johnson	39	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	2	-8	16.0	15.4	0.64	13.3	16.2	-2.95
Dion Waiters	48	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-7	10	15.2	16.1	-0.94	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Bam Adebayo	48	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-8	12	15.1	16.2	-1.07	15.1	14.9	0.23
Kelly Olynyk	60	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-3	2	15.0	16.8	-1.83	14.9	15.2	-0.36
Josh Richardson	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	1	-6	15.0	17.3	-2.38	15.5	13.8	1.61
Justise Winslow	46	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	0	-4	15.5	15.7	-0.25	14.5	15.5	-0.96
Dwyane Wade	58	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	-1	-2	14.7	17.2	-2.49	15.2	14.7	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.66,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.47,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 107, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.68,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.22,0.05,0	91.4%
POR 97, SEA 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.53,0.66,0.82,0.85,0.71,0.57,0.26,0	90.8%
DAL 92, LAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.47,0.53,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.23,0.42,0	90.0%