NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	129		Excitement	11.9 [31]		MVP	Robert Covington (MIN): +84.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	123		Comeback	35.6 [44]		LVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): -17.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Bullock	0.59	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59	0.26	0.34	0.01	21	75%	0.59	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.52	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.52	0.03	0.49	-0.00	7	70%	0.62	4	-0.11	9	56%	-0.08
Reggie Jackson	0.50	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.5	0.17	0.33	-0.00	13	69%	0.50	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.02
Blake Griffin	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.43,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.01	-0.00	22	68%	0.43	2	-0.22	6	50%	-0.05
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Jon Leuer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	10	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	7	21%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.44,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.85	0.84	0.11	0.71	-0.02	15	63%	0.88	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	10	71%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	17	43%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.06,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.06	-0.01	29	53%	0.08	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	15	44%	-0.03	2	-0.14	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.9	1.8	33.5	15.4	31.3	1.6	32.9	2.0	20.3	163.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +91.3%

MIN -22.8%

MIN -1.2%

MIN -22.3%

DET +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIN	NBA	DET	MIN	NBA
this game	15.7	13.7	14.3	119.4	113.9	109.3
season	15.3	14.4		107.5	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.0		111.8	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	13.6	17.1	18.0	14.7	15.6	15.7
MIN	13.6	12.4	12.8	16.8	12.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	67	69	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-7	20	15.9	15.4	0.54	13.5	14.1	-0.52
Langston Galloway	45	45	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.49	10	-4	14	16.1	15.5	0.63	15.1	12.7	2.34
Blake Griffin	85	85	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-9	24	15.8	15.4	0.37	14.1	12.3	1.86
Reggie Bullock	87	88	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.38	8	-2	10	15.9	15.1	0.78	13.5	14.7	-1.20
Andre Drummond	88	88	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	3	0	15.5	16.7	-1.26	13.4	15.3	-1.94
Zaza Pachulia	10	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.12	6	0	6	12.6	16.0	-3.44	16.6	13.4	3.17
Luke Kennard	39	41	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.06	3	3	0	15.8	15.7	0.07	12.8	14.3	-1.44
Jon Leuer	10	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	11	-16	20.9	15.2	5.71	14.0	13.7	0.31
Stanley Johnson	32	31	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	9	-12	14.3	16.3	-2.05	13.7	13.7	0.03
Jose Calderon	41	39	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.13	-5	11	-16	15.4	15.9	-0.54	14.1	13.5	0.52
Bruce Brown	36	34	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	-0.06	-15	21	-36	15.9	15.6	0.33	12.6	14.3	-1.70

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	64	62	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.14	9	-15	24	13.8	13.6	0.22	15.4	16.1	-0.67
Dario Saric	66	66	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.10	10	-16	26	13.7	13.7	0.01	14.9	17.0	-2.01
Tyus Jones	28	30	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.00	7	-13	20	13.8	13.7	0.13	16.4	15.4	0.98
Gorgui Dieng	20	20	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-12	18	14.1	13.6	0.46	18.5	15.1	3.47
Anthony Tolliver	0	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-6	6	0.0	13.7	-13.72	2.0	15.9	-13.85
Andrew Wiggins	81	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	12.9	16.1	-3.23	15.5	16.4	-0.99
Karl-Anthony Towns	84	85	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	3	-12	13.9	13.0	0.93	15.2	17.6	-2.34
Derrick Rose	80	78	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.33	-13	7	-20	13.7	13.8	-0.13	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Robert Covington	73	75	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.36	-20	14	-34	14.3	12.5	1.79	16.2	14.5	1.69
Taj Gibson	44	44	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.50	-16	10	-26	13.5	13.8	-0.30	16.9	14.9	1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.58,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.93,0.78,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.42,0	90.1%
NYK 116, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.18,0	88.8%
NJN 103, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.79,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.26,0	88.7%