NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	122		Excitement	6.9 [495]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +32.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	114		Comeback	10.9 [237]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -16.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.18	0.17	0.02	6	112%	0.35	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.00	14	75%	0.33	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
CJ Miles	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	2	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.01	9	78%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	112%	0.11	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
OG Anunoby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Pascal Siakam	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Lorenzo Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.03	11	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.03
Delon Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	11	67%	0.06	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.05	0.01	14	84%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.01	8	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	9	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Selden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.13	-0.03	10	55%	-0.01	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	19	45%	-0.09	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	30.3	15.7	31.1	2.7	29.3	137.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +65.6%

MEM -5.9%

TOR +0.3%

MEM -3.5%

MEM -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MEM	NBA	TOR	MEM	NBA
this game	13.8	16.6	14.3	127.1	121.3	109.3
season	14.3	15.4		111.5	105.4
opponent	14.2	14.5		107.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	13.9	11.9	14.6	13.8
MEM	16.0	13.3	19.4	18.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	44	42	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	0	8	14.5	13.1	1.41	15.8	17.2	-1.41
Kyle Lowry	73	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-2	12	13.7	14.1	-0.40	17.1	14.9	2.24
Kawhi Leonard	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-4	16	13.5	14.6	-1.14	17.6	13.3	4.32
Serge Ibaka	69	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	-2	12	13.4	14.7	-1.28	17.4	14.5	2.91
Pascal Siakam	59	60	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-2	12	13.5	14.3	-0.80	17.6	14.8	2.82
OG Anunoby	37	34	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	10	-12	14.3	13.5	0.80	14.8	17.6	-2.82
Danny Green	55	56	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	2	4	13.1	14.7	-1.66	17.2	15.6	1.65
Jonas Valanciunas	31	29	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	13	-18	14.6	13.4	1.23	14.4	17.5	-3.06
Delon Wright	29	27	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	11	-14	15.0	13.3	1.70	14.4	17.4	-3.08
Lorenzo Brown	1	0	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	10	-12	2.0	13.9	-11.91	0.0	16.6	-16.56
CJ Miles	12	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	12	-16	14.7	13.7	1.01	12.2	17.2	-5.04

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	36	38	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-13	18	14.7	17.7	-2.94	13.6	13.9	-0.33
Jaren Jackson Jr.	37	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-3	-2	17.3	16.1	1.17	13.8	13.7	0.11
Shelvin Mack	50	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-10	12	14.6	18.8	-4.28	13.8	13.8	0.05
Mike Conley	65	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-8	8	16.5	16.6	-0.08	13.9	13.5	0.39
JaMychal Green	50	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-8	8	16.9	16.1	0.80	13.9	13.6	0.36
Wayne Selden	31	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	0	-8	16.4	16.7	-0.26	13.2	14.1	-0.87
Garrett Temple	72	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-8	8	16.3	17.5	-1.16	14.0	13.1	0.95
Kyle Anderson	66	66	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.20	-12	4	-16	17.2	15.1	2.13	13.8	13.7	0.17
Marc Gasol	76	76	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.32	-17	9	-26	17.4	12.8	4.61	13.5	14.9	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.41,0.46,0.14,0.22,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.34,0.31,0.46,0.15,0.08,0	91.5%
NYK 105, SAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.26,0.05,0.06,0.02,0	91.1%
NJN 95, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.09,0	91.1%