NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	113		Excitement	7.7 [347]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +43.5%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.8 [390]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -15.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0.44	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.44	0.13	0.36	0.05	31	57%	0.51	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.01
Malik Monk	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	11	62%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cody Zeller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	73%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	54%	0.08	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.07
Willy Hernangomez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	10	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.03	-0.05	10	36%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.14	-0.01	15	66%	0.24	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.00	6	67%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	79%	0.20	3	-0.11	2	50%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.11
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	0.08	17	51%	-0.02	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	13	43%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	11	32%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	28.0	14.5	28.5	2.6	40.5	144.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +21.1%

CHA +33.5%

MIA -11.1%

CHA +9.8%

MIA -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	13.0	14.3	113.0	106.7	109.3
season	14.6	14.8		110.4	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	13.0	13.9	17.3	16.2	15.1
MIA	13.7	14.9	10.4	13.3	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	63	64	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-8	17	15.1	15.1	-0.06	13.9	11.8	2.12
Nicolas Batum	87	92	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	1	-1	15.0	15.7	-0.68	12.8	14.6	-1.79
Kemba Walker	84	89	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.45	1	0	1	14.9	16.2	-1.37	12.7	15.1	-2.45
Malik Monk	51	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	2	-3	15.8	14.4	1.36	12.4	13.7	-1.28
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	60	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.59	-12	13	-25	15.2	14.9	0.25	12.6	13.6	-0.98
Cody Zeller	52	55	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	-10	21	15.1	15.1	-0.01	13.1	13.0	0.17
Jeremy Lamb	59	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	-9	19	14.8	15.6	-0.82	13.7	12.1	1.58
Tony Parker	19	18	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	5	-9	15.7	15.0	0.79	14.9	12.7	2.29
Willy Hernangomez	25	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.18	-9	10	-19	14.9	15.2	-0.24	12.4	13.3	-0.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	55	52	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.49	14	-15	29	11.7	14.5	-2.81	16.0	14.1	1.87
Derrick Jones Jr.	66	61	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	0	-1	13.5	12.4	1.10	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Goran Dragic	85	81	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.36	9	-10	19	12.9	13.6	-0.74	15.1	14.9	0.25
Bam Adebayo	35	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	5	-11	13.4	12.9	0.53	15.0	15.2	-0.19
Tyler Johnson	49	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	5	-11	13.4	12.7	0.64	14.5	15.7	-1.15
Kelly Olynyk	33	33	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	13	-27	14.7	12.3	2.45	13.4	15.9	-2.55
Josh Richardson	58	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	3	-7	13.6	12.4	1.13	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Rodney McGruder	91	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	0	-1	12.9	14.2	-1.35	15.3	13.7	1.62
Dwyane Wade	53	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.64	4	-5	9	12.3	13.8	-1.47	15.8	14.4	1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.18,0.1,0.28,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.17,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.08,0	92.7%
SEA 114, SAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.02,0,0	92.7%
MIA 112, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.02,0	92.6%