NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	5.8 [688]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +34.3%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	1.7 [356]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -17.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34	0.13	0.18	-0.03	18	63%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.13	0.13	0.00	15	73%	0.29	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	83%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	15	76%	0.20	8	-0.23	7	86%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	20	64%	0.18	1	-0.03	13	92%	0.07
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	3	-0.06	9	78%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	52%	-0.00	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	16	48%	-0.07	5	-0.11	14	86%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.0	31.5	18.0	32.1	3.4	42.5	156.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +60.3%

ORL -19.9%

MIA +11.4%

ORL -1.1%

ORL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.5	119.1	110.8	104.0
season	15.7	14.3		107.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	18.5	16.0	17.4	16.4
ORL	17.4	16.6	11.7	12.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	84	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.20	13	-4	17	16.5	15.5	1.00	14.8	9.7	5.06
Udonis Haslem	75	72	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-4	17	15.7	19.2	-3.46	14.3	14.8	-0.47
Dwyane Wade	80	77	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	7	-5	16.0	18.6	-2.64	13.7	17.8	-4.12
Damon Jones	64	63	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	0	9	15.3	18.8	-3.53	14.0	15.2	-1.23
Michael Doleac	34	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.10	3	6	-3	16.6	16.3	0.35	15.7	13.6	2.02
Shandon Anderson	38	38	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	6	-3	17.2	15.8	1.37	14.2	14.5	-0.36
Keyon Dooling	31	32	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	11	-13	18.8	15.2	3.65	14.6	14.3	0.35
Rasual Butler	18	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	8	-7	18.5	15.9	2.61	14.9	14.3	0.68
Christian Laettner	46	44	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.08	3	6	-3	16.3	16.5	-0.22	14.4	14.4	0.06

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	6	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	17.3	14.2	3.14	19.4	16.1	3.26
Kelvin Cato	30	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-10	11	15.4	13.9	1.48	15.9	16.6	-0.68
Brandon Hunter	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-8	7	13.7	14.4	-0.78	20.8	16.1	4.74
Doug Christie	22	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-8	7	15.1	14.2	0.97	19.0	15.7	3.29
Pat Garrity	24	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-4	-1	14.9	14.2	0.64	17.1	16.1	0.97
Tony Battie	28	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-5	1	14.6	14.3	0.30	15.8	16.7	-0.87
Hedo Turkoglu	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-6	3	13.3	15.3	-2.03	16.9	16.0	0.90
Jameer Nelson	71	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-1	-7	14.2	15.1	-0.97	15.7	19.0	-3.29
Dwight Howard	79	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	14.4	14.4	0.05	16.2	17.3	-1.10
Grant Hill	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	14.2	15.7	-1.46	16.2	18.0	-1.84
Steve Francis	74	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.20	-12	3	-15	14.4	14.5	-0.10	16.1	17.6	-1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 125, GSW 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.01,0	94.1%
SAC 115, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.09,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.27,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0,0	94.0%
MIN 102, VAN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.06,0,0	93.7%