NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	10.3 [53]		MVP	Thaddeus Young (IND): +28.7%
Indiana Pacers	113		Comeback	4.6 [337]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (IND): -34.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.19	0.01	0.04	10	95%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	-0.02	0.12	-0.02	9	50%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.05	0.01	9	62%	0.21	4	-0.17	6	50%	-0.14
Justise Winslow	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	78%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	13	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.09	-0.24	0.01	13	43%	-0.11	4	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.18	-0.00	16	63%	0.32	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.12	0.00	10	60%	0.20	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	3	133%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.11	0.03	12	64%	0.08	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.01
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.09	-0.23	0.01	8	32%	-0.20	2	-0.12	6	83%	-0.05
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.12,-0.37,-0.37,-0.44,-0.44,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.07	-0.27	0.01	21	48%	-0.01	5	-0.34	6	83%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	25.9	0.2	26.3	2.4	32.2	2.6	13.2	128.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +8.1%

IND +13.0%

IND +55.5%

MIA -22.3%

MIA -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.3	15.8	14.7	101.9	106.6	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		105.4	108.3
opponent	15.0	14.6		106.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.7	15.5	14.5	13.1	15.7	14.3
IND	15.8	15.8	14.3	16.9	17.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	56	56	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.01	11	-17	28	14.3	14.3	0.04	16.9	14.6	2.25
Bam Adebayo	42	41	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-4	2	15.1	13.7	1.40	15.4	16.1	-0.68
Justise Winslow	40	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.26	-10	4	-14	14.2	14.4	-0.17	14.5	16.6	-2.08
Wayne Ellington	55	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	6	-18	14.4	14.2	0.24	15.3	16.4	-1.15
James Johnson	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-5	4	14.4	14.2	0.17	16.7	14.4	2.34
Goran Dragic	69	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.45	2	-8	10	14.4	14.1	0.38	16.6	14.2	2.39
Josh Richardson	81	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	14.0	15.4	-1.39	15.4	17.1	-1.64
Kelly Olynyk	63	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-5	4	13.7	15.1	-1.40	16.0	15.6	0.41
Dwyane Wade	54	54	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.39	-12	6	-18	14.5	14.1	0.36	14.8	16.9	-2.03

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thaddeus Young	71	69	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.52	2	4	-2	16.3	14.9	1.45	14.5	14.0	0.46
Myles Turner	59	61	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	-2	10	16.6	14.9	1.72	15.0	13.3	1.70
Darren Collison	57	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	9	-12	17.1	14.4	2.64	14.3	14.3	0.09
Bojan Bogdanovic	76	76	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	4	-2	15.6	16.5	-0.89	14.1	14.9	-0.87
Victor Oladipo	77	76	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	8	-10	16.9	13.1	3.75	14.3	14.3	-0.06
Glenn Robinson III	33	33	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	-5	16	13.6	16.8	-3.19	13.5	14.7	-1.11
Lance Stephenson	46	45	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	-2	10	14.5	16.9	-2.43	14.5	14.2	0.28
Cory Joseph	64	62	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.15	8	-2	10	14.9	17.3	-2.37	14.3	14.3	0.04
Trevor Booker	47	45	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.11	-4	10	-14	15.6	16.1	-0.50	13.8	14.6	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.47,0.61,0.71,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.78,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.56,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.78,0.96,1	88.7%
WAS 105, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.32,0.16,0.46,0.67,0.63,0.91,1,1	87.8%
ATL 84, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.59,0.46,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.96,1	87.4%