NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	120		Excitement	10.6 [37]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +49.7%
San Antonio Spurs	124		Comeback	4.1 [386]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): -16.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gobert	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.09	0.18	0.00	6	72%	0.30	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Derrick Favors	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.17	0.09	-0.01	10	81%	0.31	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.07,-0.17,0.16,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.21	-0.05	0.25	-0.02	36	45%	0.50	4	-0.28	5	60%	-0.06
Ricky Rubio	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	10	74%	0.21	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.06
Joe Ingles	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	9	59%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Royce O'Neale	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dante Exum	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.26,0.39,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.5	0.50	0.21	0.31	0.01	28	70%	0.60	4	-0.10	8	75%	0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42	0.42	0.10	0.31	-0.00	12	62%	0.42	0	0.00	5	100%	0.07
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.35	0.35	0.20	0.17	0.02	12	81%	0.36	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.12	-0.00	13	48%	0.15	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	4	62%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.6	1.7	27.2	14.7	26.8	2.0	42.0	6.6	15.7	162.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -11.3%

SAS +9.4%

SAS +43.2%

SAS +17.8%

UTA -9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	14.9	14.7	111.1	113.8	107.5
season	15.1	15.5		106.6	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.6		104.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
UTA	17.2	13.6	16.3	11.6	13.2	14.4
SAS	12.8	15.7	15.7	14.5	17.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	54	55	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-7	10	13.8	15.0	-1.22	15.0	14.9	0.09
Jonas Jerebko	24	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.22	7	-11	18	14.6	14.3	0.30	16.1	14.5	1.57
Royce O'Neale	23	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-4	4	15.3	14.1	1.16	15.0	14.9	0.05
Dante Exum	19	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-8	12	13.3	14.6	-1.30	16.6	14.5	2.11
Derrick Favors	71	72	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-7	10	14.5	14.2	0.34	14.9	15.0	-0.17
Ricky Rubio	84	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	0	-4	14.3	14.7	-0.36	14.9	14.9	0.04
Joe Ingles	83	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	5	-14	14.2	15.2	-1.00	14.4	16.5	-2.03
Donovan Mitchell	90	90	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	6	-16	14.5	13.7	0.80	14.8	15.3	-0.48
Rudy Gobert	82	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	14.9	12.7	2.23	14.4	16.6	-2.13

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dejounte Murray	70	67	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-9	22	15.1	14.6	0.47	15.6	12.5	3.06
Rudy Gay	48	48	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.71	-1	5	-6	16.6	13.6	2.94	13.6	15.0	-1.49
Bryn Forbes	28	28	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	-2	8	16.5	14.4	2.13	13.7	14.6	-0.96
Patty Mills	82	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-2	8	15.0	14.8	0.19	14.2	15.0	-0.85
LaMarcus Aldridge	85	85	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-5	14	14.6	16.2	-1.66	14.5	14.0	0.55
Pau Gasol	25	23	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.18	-4	8	-12	15.6	14.7	0.89	14.0	14.5	-0.55
Davis Bertans	16	13	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	4	-4	17.3	14.5	2.81	14.2	14.4	-0.18
Manu Ginobili	58	58	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	13	-22	14.8	15.0	-0.23	13.1	15.9	-2.78
Tony Parker	26	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.10	-8	12	-20	16.6	14.4	2.18	14.2	14.4	-0.19
Danny Green	51	54	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.32	6	-2	8	13.3	16.3	-3.01	14.8	14.0	0.81
Kyle Anderson	56	56	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.34	2	2	0	12.8	17.2	-4.35	15.4	13.3	2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.55,0.68,0.58,0.5,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 111, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.58,1	90.9%
PHX 103, ATL 105	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.55,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.22,0.73,1	89.7%
IND 110, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	89.2%