NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	9.1 [130]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +22.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	3.5 [308]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (LAL): -42.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,0.23	0.13	0.12	0.02	18	71%	0.41	4	-0.19	6	100%	0.04
Kelly Olynyk	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	14	61%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	10	48%	0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Rodney McGruder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	7	27%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	8	22%	-0.19	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Wear	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	5	92%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	10	72%	0.17	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.11	0.01	10	55%	0.20	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.07	0.01	17	58%	0.06	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	43%	0.02	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.11	0.00	15	30%	-0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.43	-0.43	-0.15	-0.30	-0.02	9	23%	-0.32	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	29.4	14.7	29.3	2.3	32.6	132.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.9%

LAL -14.6%

LAL -7.3%

MIA +29.3%

MIA +24.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.1	14.7	96.8	93.8	107.5
season	15.1	13.7		105.4	105.7
opponent	14.8	14.6		107.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.1	14.6	20.4	16.0
LAL	13.7	13.7	14.2	14.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	35	37	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.52	11	-10	21	17.8	14.9	2.92	14.4	13.8	0.56
Wayne Ellington	57	60	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.44	9	-8	17	17.1	14.3	2.74	14.8	12.9	1.94
Bam Adebayo	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	1	-1	15.4	17.6	-2.17	13.9	14.6	-0.70
Josh Richardson	64	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.50	-7	8	-15	15.9	16.1	-0.25	13.6	15.0	-1.44
Kelly Olynyk	43	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	-1	3	18.5	13.9	4.58	15.0	13.3	1.71
James Johnson	55	55	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.37	-8	9	-17	14.1	18.5	-4.43	13.5	14.8	-1.32
Rodney McGruder	28	30	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	3	-5	16.4	15.8	0.67	13.6	14.3	-0.72
Tyler Johnson	58	60	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	14.8	17.8	-2.95	14.0	14.2	-0.16
Goran Dragic	65	64	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	1	-1	15.4	17.1	-1.62	14.0	14.2	-0.14

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brook Lopez	67	68	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-1	1	14.0	14.1	-0.10	15.3	17.6	-2.23
Tyler Ennis	23	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	5	-11	14.8	13.8	0.94	16.6	15.8	0.88
Ivica Zubac	15	14	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	4	-9	14.3	14.0	0.32	16.9	15.8	1.14
Travis Wear	27	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	2	-5	14.4	13.9	0.43	17.9	15.2	2.71
Julius Randle	78	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.35	6	-7	13	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.8	16.5	-0.75
Kyle Kuzma	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.49	8	-9	17	13.9	14.4	-0.48	16.2	15.4	0.85
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	79	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-4	7	13.8	15.4	-1.63	15.9	16.3	-0.39
Lonzo Ball	78	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.5	17.6	-2.09
Isaiah Thomas	52	50	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.47	-9	8	-17	14.5	13.6	0.94	15.9	16.0	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.28,0.09,0.19,0.21,0.33,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 109, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	91.8%
NOH 96, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.45,0.42,0	91.2%
ORL 91, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.42,0	91.1%