NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	109		Excitement	8.2 [245]		MVP	Earl Boykins (MIL): +37.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	2.0 [431]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -37.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	10	73%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.18	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18	0.03	0.16	0.01	10	68%	0.27	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.00	8	74%	0.19	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.08	0.02	28	48%	0.15	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00	8	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Jamal Sampson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	2	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	11	55%	-0.09
DerMarr Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	14	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.38,0.37	0.37	0.16	0.23	0.01	15	87%	0.47	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	0.00	4	78%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	13	62%	0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.13	-0.02	10	62%	0.00	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.37	-0.37	-0.19	-0.18	0.00	20	36%	-0.20	5	-0.17	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	28.6	15.6	24.7	1.0	39.3	133.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +11.7%

DEN +15.6%

DEN +16.7%

MIL -5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.4	116.0	107.4	104.5
season	14.0	15.2		105.8	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		109.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	14.9	14.0	15.3	14.6
MIL	15.3	14.5	19.7	14.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	86	86	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-7	21	14.2	18.1	-3.88	16.2	12.7	3.57
Carmelo Anthony	85	86	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	-1	9	14.1	18.7	-4.53	16.1	13.9	2.22
Eduardo Najera	72	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-2	11	14.5	14.8	-0.32	15.2	17.9	-2.69
Nene	71	72	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-4	15	13.2	18.9	-5.74	16.0	15.6	0.38
J.R. Smith	46	47	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	11	-15	16.3	12.9	3.39	15.0	16.8	-1.77
Linas Kleiza	54	54	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	1	5	14.4	14.8	-0.35	16.7	14.8	1.96
Reggie Evans	34	36	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	7	-7	16.9	13.2	3.71	17.1	15.2	1.96
Yakhouba Diawara	3	3	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	3	1	3.0	15.0	-11.96	8.7	16.1	-7.46
DerMarr Johnson	8	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	14	-21	18.1	14.2	3.88	12.7	16.2	-3.57
Jamal Sampson	11	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	13	-19	16.8	14.3	2.54	15.8	15.9	-0.07

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	18	19	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.04	6	-13	19	14.1	16.3	-2.20	19.7	13.3	6.47
Lynn Greer	25	25	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-9	11	15.3	16.1	-0.78	14.0	14.8	-0.84
Ruben Patterson	73	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-8	9	16.6	13.5	3.18	14.2	15.7	-1.45
Charlie Bell	66	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-3	-1	16.2	15.1	1.14	14.3	15.1	-0.82
Charlie Villanueva	42	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	2	-11	18.1	14.2	3.94	13.3	15.6	-2.26
Earl Boykins	57	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-5	3	14.8	17.5	-2.68	15.3	13.5	1.76
Brian Skinner	55	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-4	1	14.6	17.7	-3.12	15.2	13.7	1.48
Andrew Bogut	61	60	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.12	-13	6	-19	15.9	15.9	0.07	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Mo Williams	78	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.30	-13	6	-19	16.0	15.4	0.66	13.8	18.1	-4.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.42,0	92.1%
MIA 92, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.28,0.09,0.19,0.21,0.33,0.58,0	91.8%
UTA 103, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.38,0.39,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.05,0	91.7%