NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	7.4 [382]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (LAL): +30.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	112		Comeback	9.5 [115]		LVP	Lonzo Ball (LAL): -16.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.23,0.23	0.18	0.04	-0.01	16	79%	0.30	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	8	79%	0.18	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Devin Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	64%	0.05	4	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	17	41%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	5	38%	-0.03	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.07
Will Barton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	14	27%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.14	0.17	0.01	20	63%	0.33	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.08	-0.00	19	52%	0.15	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Julius Randle	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.07	0.03	17	63%	0.19	4	-0.10	7	57%	-0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	13	59%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Travis Wear	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.18	0.00	-0.02	11	21%	-0.05	4	-0.12	2	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	28.8	14.8	24.5	2.3	38.5	135.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +27.9%

DEN -0.6%

LAL +12.9%

LAL +10.5%

DEN -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	13.4	13.7	14.7	97.2	104.7	107.5
season	14.7	13.7		111.2	105.7
opponent	14.8	14.7		107.2	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	13.9	12.3	12.4	13.4
LAL	13.2	13.8	14.4	13.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-7	5	0.0	13.5	-13.50	7.0	13.7	-6.73
Paul Millsap	56	55	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-16	23	13.6	13.1	0.45	14.7	12.6	2.15
Wilson Chandler	90	90	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-13	17	13.3	13.7	-0.44	13.9	12.6	1.21
Nikola Jokic	61	60	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-14	19	13.0	13.9	-0.85	14.3	12.8	1.49
Jamal Murray	77	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-9	9	12.5	15.8	-3.28	14.2	12.2	2.05
Devin Harris	29	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	0	-9	15.8	12.5	3.28	12.2	14.2	-2.05
Trey Lyles	35	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	3	-15	15.0	12.6	2.42	12.1	14.5	-2.42
Mason Plumlee	44	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	3	-15	14.2	12.8	1.38	13.0	14.2	-1.24
Gary Harris	77	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	-2	-5	12.9	14.8	-1.90	14.2	12.2	1.96
Will Barton	60	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	10	-29	13.0	13.9	-0.87	12.7	14.9	-2.16

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Thomas	69	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-6	21	13.3	14.3	-1.05	13.5	13.2	0.28
Lonzo Ball	91	91	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.14	18	-9	27	13.4	14.9	-1.50	13.3	13.9	-0.65
Julius Randle	90	88	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-4	17	13.7	13.3	0.44	13.0	15.1	-2.09
Travis Wear	25	25	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	12.8	13.9	-1.13	17.8	12.0	5.74
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	81	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	6	-3	14.2	11.7	2.47	12.3	16.7	-4.37
Alex Caruso	21	21	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	3	3	12.0	14.1	-2.07	15.8	12.8	3.03
Kyle Kuzma	90	88	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.24	-9	18	-27	13.8	13.1	0.72	12.6	17.3	-4.77
Ivica Zubac	10	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	11	-13	13.1	13.7	-0.62	16.1	13.1	3.01
Brook Lopez	56	56	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.10	-4	13	-17	14.5	12.8	1.72	13.4	13.4	-0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.94,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 106, CLE 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.84,0.85,1	91.6%
TOR 96, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.18,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.67,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.91,0.91,1	91.5%
BOS 100, LAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.84,0.94,0.98,1	90.9%