NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	121		Excitement	12.8 [9]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +114.9%
Detroit Pistons	119		Comeback	7.2 [381]		LVP	Andre Drummond (DET): -23.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	1.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.32,0.32,0.43,1.13,1.07,1.07,1.07,1.3,1.15	0.25	0.90	0.01	28	66%	1.17	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.14
Kyle Lowry	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.11	0.01	8	71%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.00	5	73%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	12	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Delon Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.28,-0.37,-0.42,-0.1	-0.12	0.02	-0.00	10	27%	0.05	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.07
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.01	-0.15	0.01	13	52%	-0.01	3	-0.16	1	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.76,0.95	0.95	0.12	0.84	0.01	21	62%	1.03	3	-0.07	8	50%	-0.03
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.03	0.19	0.00	10	70%	0.30	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.10	-0.00	6	78%	0.30	1	-0.09	6	100%	0.08
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.01	13	70%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	4	78%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eric Moreland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Buycks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	35%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	14	36%	-0.09	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.7	2.8	29.8	14.8	28.4	2.6	36.3	2.6	15.0	156.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -24.8%

TOR +8.8%

TOR +33.4%

TOR +14.1%

TOR +18.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	14.7	113.1	113.3	107.5
season	14.6	14.9		112.7	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.8		106.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	17.0	15.8	14.0	14.5	16.5	15.5
DET	13.8	12.4	16.7	16.1	13.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	43	47	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.68	3	-1	4	15.0	15.8	-0.77	13.7	15.2	-1.43
DeMar DeRozan	91	87	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.37	9	-7	16	15.0	17.9	-2.92	14.4	15.3	-0.97
Norman Powell	57	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-10	22	14.6	16.4	-1.81	15.4	13.5	1.98
Jonas Valanciunas	67	62	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.34	-1	3	-4	15.5	15.4	0.09	13.8	15.6	-1.77
Kyle Lowry	75	73	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	-9	20	14.3	18.3	-4.03	15.1	13.3	1.76
Jakob Poeltl	31	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	0	2	17.2	14.8	2.40	15.6	14.0	1.52
Malcolm Miller	7	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	1	0	16.1	15.4	0.73	21.6	13.9	7.68
Lucas Nogueira	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	1	0	9.3	16.0	-6.69	15.7	14.4	1.24
Fred VanVleet	49	49	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.32	-14	16	-30	16.6	14.5	2.17	13.9	15.1	-1.15
Serge Ibaka	25	26	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	8	-14	17.1	15.0	2.12	12.5	15.2	-2.70
Delon Wright	14	14	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.08	-13	15	-28	19.3	14.9	4.40	10.4	15.2	-4.82
Pascal Siakam	58	53	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.40	1	1	0	15.4	15.5	-0.06	14.9	14.2	0.71

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Moreland	31	29	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.24	15	-17	32	14.5	14.5	0.02	17.2	14.8	2.40
Luke Kennard	60	62	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.35	17	-19	36	14.3	14.8	-0.47	16.6	13.8	2.82
Dwight Buycks	31	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-1	0	14.7	14.5	0.20	17.4	14.7	2.73
Andre Drummond	74	77	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.26	-14	12	-26	14.5	14.5	-0.02	14.9	16.8	-1.91
Blake Griffin	75	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-1	0	14.5	14.7	-0.28	14.7	17.6	-2.86
James Ennis III	71	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	1	-4	14.8	14.0	0.79	15.6	15.3	0.30
Ish Smith	74	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-1	0	14.5	14.7	-0.20	14.7	17.4	-2.73
Anthony Tolliver	30	29	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.52	-4	2	-6	14.7	14.5	0.28	17.2	14.8	2.35
Reggie Bullock	79	80	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.19	-18	16	-34	14.5	14.8	-0.31	14.4	18.4	-3.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.75,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.56,0.49,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.16,0.1,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 105, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.17,0.46,0.61,0.37,0.23,0.02,0	90.9%
NOP 123, MIL 121	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.17,0.28,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.23,0.15,0	87.3%
LAL 102, VAN 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.27,0.32,0.22,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.03,0	86.3%