NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	9.3 [91]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +27.7%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	4.6 [201]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -17.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.13	0.19	-0.04	0.02	22	70%	0.53	5	-0.41	17	76%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	7	73%	0.24	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	11	43%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.02	7	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	9	26%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	17	33%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.01	17	78%	0.31	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	10	54%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.06	0.03	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	9	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	22	43%	-0.01	5	-0.14	14	86%	0.06
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	8	17%	-0.16	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	34.0	15.8	30.1	1.7	29.1	1.8	12.2	150.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +61.8%

IND -18.4%

MIA +42.1%

IND -41.1%

MIA +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	17.5	15.3	15.3	106.1	101.1	106.0
season	16.2	14.2		104.4	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		105.3	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	18.5	14.9	15.1	21.1	19.5	17.5
IND	13.6	16.5	17.0	14.9	13.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	83	79	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.24	20	-11	31	17.1	19.2	-2.13	15.4	14.4	1.01
Joel Anthony	72	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-7	23	17.8	16.6	1.20	15.8	13.8	1.97
Udonis Haslem	63	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	4	1	18.3	16.1	2.21	14.5	16.6	-2.14
Dorell Wright	53	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	5	-1	18.2	16.7	1.52	14.1	16.5	-2.39
Mario Chalmers	68	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	6	-3	17.5	17.4	0.11	14.7	16.4	-1.66
Jamaal Magloire	7	6	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	5	-1	12.1	17.9	-5.73	10.8	15.6	-4.74
Quentin Richardson	47	45	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	4	1	16.3	18.5	-2.14	16.5	14.1	2.39
Carlos Arroyo	47	48	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.01	-5	14	-19	18.0	17.0	1.06	15.7	14.8	0.92
Michael Beasley	55	54	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	16	-23	17.1	18.0	-0.88	15.9	14.4	1.55

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	20	20	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.03	8	-17	25	14.6	15.5	-0.85	15.4	18.0	-2.52
Mike Dunleavy	35	37	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-11	13	13.5	16.3	-2.88	17.0	17.7	-0.70
A.J. Price	47	48	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-12	15	14.6	15.9	-1.30	18.0	16.9	1.12
Troy Murphy	73	73	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-5	1	16.1	12.5	3.67	17.7	16.7	1.00
Solomon Jones	18	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-12	15	16.3	15.0	1.31	18.2	17.3	0.86
Danny Granger	86	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-2	-5	14.9	18.7	-3.75	17.6	16.5	1.03
Roy Hibbert	35	39	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	-16	7	-23	15.9	14.9	0.97	16.5	18.1	-1.61
Earl Watson	70	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.13	-15	6	-21	15.4	14.8	0.64	17.9	16.1	1.80
Brandon Rush	83	87	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.31	-10	1	-11	15.8	11.8	3.94	17.1	19.9	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.17,0.46,0.61,0.37,0.23,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 121, DET 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.75,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.56,0.49,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.16,0.1,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.09,0	90.9%
MIA 104, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	89.2%
TOR 95, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.32,0.21,0.09,0,0	88.7%