NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	6.7 [531]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +18.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	1.2 [1148]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -13.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	14	80%	0.24	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.14	0.08	0.08	0.02	18	67%	0.23	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.01	4	90%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	43%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.04
Nikola Jokic	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	5	53%	0.03	5	-0.16	7	71%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myke Henry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarell Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.00	12	67%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Brice Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Rabb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Selden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobi Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	6	33%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	9	55%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	17	56%	0.13	7	-0.18	5	100%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	27.7	14.0	27.0	2.0	35.3	132.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +51.9%

MEM -7.5%

DEN +4.8%

MEM -9.0%

DEN +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	13.9	14.7	14.7	108.0	101.0	107.5
season	14.7	15.4		111.2	103.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		109.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	11.6	13.7	17.7	13.9
MEM	15.5	14.5	14.5	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	73	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	-4	14	13.5	15.2	-1.72	15.0	14.1	0.89
Will Barton	69	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	3	0	13.6	14.6	-0.94	14.9	14.3	0.58
Nikola Jokic	67	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	0	6	14.3	13.3	0.98	15.2	13.7	1.42
Paul Millsap	57	59	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	2	2	14.4	13.3	1.10	14.1	15.6	-1.53
Jamal Murray	55	58	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.02	8	-2	10	14.1	13.7	0.44	15.5	13.7	1.74
Mason Plumlee	45	43	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	2	2	12.8	14.9	-2.05	15.5	14.2	1.29
Wilson Chandler	66	67	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.24	-1	7	-8	14.6	12.6	2.08	13.5	17.1	-3.52
Devin Harris	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	8	-10	13.8	14.0	-0.15	14.9	14.6	0.26
Trey Lyles	31	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	8	-10	14.0	13.9	0.10	13.9	15.1	-1.18

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Selden	24	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-8	10	14.4	14.8	-0.46	11.3	14.7	-3.47
Mario Chalmers	71	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.40	11	-17	28	14.0	16.3	-2.29	14.8	12.0	2.75
Marc Gasol	76	75	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-12	18	14.3	15.9	-1.59	14.5	12.3	2.20
Myke Henry	42	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-5	4	15.6	14.1	1.53	14.0	13.9	0.12
Jarell Martin	56	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-5	4	15.2	14.2	0.98	15.0	12.5	2.53
Ivan Rabb	46	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	1	-8	14.4	15.0	-0.65	12.4	15.2	-2.74
Brice Johnson	25	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	6	-18	15.9	14.3	1.59	12.3	14.5	-2.20
Ben McLemore	64	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	14.4	15.4	-0.99	14.7	12.6	2.16
Dillon Brooks	71	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	0	-6	14.5	15.2	-0.68	14.1	13.5	0.65
Kobi Simmons	30	31	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.07	-17	11	-28	16.3	14.0	2.29	12.0	14.8	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.09,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, SAS 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.15,0	94.3%
NYK 98, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.26,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.15,0	93.9%
TOR 96, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.21,0.16,0.27,0.1,0.21,0.05,0.16,0	93.8%