NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	105		Excitement	2.1 [1281]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +15.4%
Toronto Raptors	130		Comeback	1.1 [1003]		LVP	Evan Turner (POR): -5.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.19	0.00	0.12	18	73%	0.09	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.13	-0.00	0.11	11	74%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	87%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jake Layman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	125%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	3	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.08	16	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Zach Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	7	14%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.23	0.00	0.08	22	67%	0.16	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	15	56%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.02	13	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.04	12	64%	0.05	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.03	0.06	8	65%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	7	79%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	4	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	58%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	27.8	14.8	26.5	2.5	26.6	127.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +17.8%

TOR +9.0%

TOR +10.9%

TOR +11.4%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	14.7	110.5	136.8	107.5
season	15.2	14.6		107.8	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.3		105.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.5	14.0	13.8	16.5	14.7
TOR	13.7	16.6	16.8	15.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Meyers Leonard	15	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-26	27	16.1	14.4	1.71	14.3	15.9	-1.61
Jake Layman	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-26	27	16.2	14.5	1.78	13.5	16.0	-2.50
Maurice Harkless	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-26	27	16.2	14.5	1.78	13.5	16.0	-2.50
Noah Vonleh	20	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-24	23	15.9	14.4	1.59	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Jusuf Nurkic	52	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-25	25	13.6	16.0	-2.38	15.5	15.8	-0.28
Pat Connaughton	29	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.20	-13	-12	-1	15.4	14.4	1.04	15.7	15.6	0.18
Zach Collins	19	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.31	-19	-6	-13	16.6	14.2	2.42	15.4	15.7	-0.28
Shabazz Napier	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.15	-14	-11	-3	15.6	14.0	1.52	16.5	15.0	1.48
Al-Farouq Aminu	61	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-16	7	13.9	16.1	-2.26	15.8	15.2	0.60
CJ McCollum	69	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-15	5	14.0	16.6	-2.64	16.4	13.7	2.70
Ed Davis	23	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.33	-22	-3	-19	15.7	14.4	1.26	16.8	15.2	1.59
Damian Lillard	73	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	-8	-9	14.4	15.6	-1.23	15.6	15.7	-0.04
Evan Turner	47	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.28	-23	-2	-21	14.1	15.2	-1.08	14.9	16.4	-1.47

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	63	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.24	24	1	23	14.8	17.2	-2.36	14.4	15.3	-0.98
OG Anunoby	55	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	10	5	14.5	17.1	-2.64	14.4	15.0	-0.58
Delon Wright	42	41	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.31	20	5	15	16.0	15.3	0.68	16.1	13.6	2.51
Jakob Poeltl	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	10	5	16.6	15.1	1.50	16.5	13.6	2.91
Serge Ibaka	48	47	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	16	-7	15.1	16.1	-1.04	13.9	15.5	-1.54
Pascal Siakam	35	37	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.31	19	6	13	17.4	14.6	2.77	14.8	14.6	0.19
Jonas Valanciunas	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	14	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.59	13.6	15.9	-2.23
Kyle Lowry	53	54	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	20	-15	15.3	16.0	-0.68	13.6	16.1	-2.51
Fred VanVleet	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.12	11	14	-3	16.6	14.9	1.69	16.2	13.6	2.56
Alfonzo McKinnie	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	26	-27	13.4	15.8	-2.40	13.3	14.8	-1.50
Lucas Nogueira	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	26	-27	13.4	15.8	-2.40	13.3	14.8	-1.50
Norman Powell	36	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	27	-29	17.2	14.7	2.49	15.2	14.4	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 90, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
UTA 93, MIL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
CLE 91, ORL 120	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%