NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	8.6 [187]		MVP	Thaddeus Young (IND): +43.0%
Indiana Pacers	126		Comeback	34.5 [61]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -19.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Lyles	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.28,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.17	0.24	-0.01	15	76%	0.47	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.10	-0.02	7	76%	0.22	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.04
Gary Harris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.00	0.03	-0.06	18	55%	0.18	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	16	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	44%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Malik Beasley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.05	-0.14	0.01	19	52%	-0.03	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	4	37%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.15	0.30	0.02	11	82%	0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.09	0.02	15	71%	0.23	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.08,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.21	-0.07	-0.01	28	68%	0.29	4	-0.13	13	85%	0.03
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.02	10	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
TJ Leaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	25.2	15.3	25.4	2.4	33.4	2.4	10.4	140.6
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +13.3%

DEN -2.8%

DEN -6.1%

IND +37.4%

IND +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	16.8	14.1	14.7	112.6	122.3	107.5
season	14.7	14.8		111.2	108.3
opponent	15.0	14.7		106.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	14.5	16.0	15.6	20.4	21.1	16.8
IND	13.2	12.8	14.4	16.4	14.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	52	53	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.13	6	-16	22	16.3	17.3	-1.04	14.2	14.0	0.21
Trey Lyles	41	40	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.01	6	-16	22	17.6	16.3	1.29	14.5	13.8	0.63
Malik Beasley	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-18	26	14.9	17.8	-2.83	13.6	14.4	-0.77
Mason Plumlee	44	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-7	4	15.7	17.6	-1.97	13.3	14.6	-1.27
Emmanuel Mudiay	33	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-8	6	15.6	17.3	-1.74	13.3	14.4	-1.12
Kenneth Faried	59	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	-3	-4	17.6	15.7	1.97	14.6	13.3	1.27
Will Barton	85	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	4	-18	17.4	13.9	3.44	14.4	12.8	1.52
Gary Harris	85	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.13	-14	4	-18	17.0	15.9	1.02	14.0	14.3	-0.30
Wilson Chandler	72	72	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.29	-20	10	-30	16.8	16.8	-0.03	14.1	14.1	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bojan Bogdanovic	68	67	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.47	16	-6	22	14.6	13.1	1.52	17.1	16.2	0.95
Myles Turner	78	79	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.21	18	-8	26	14.2	13.6	0.64	16.7	17.2	-0.55
Victor Oladipo	88	87	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	13.9	14.9	-0.99	16.7	17.0	-0.25
Thaddeus Young	74	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-2	14	14.4	13.4	0.94	17.8	14.0	3.83
Lance Stephenson	67	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	0	10	14.1	14.1	0.01	17.2	15.9	1.28
Joe Young	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	9	-8	13.8	14.2	-0.38	15.8	17.1	-1.31
Domantas Sabonis	41	42	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	14	-18	13.1	14.7	-1.56	15.7	17.5	-1.85
TJ Leaf	10	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	16	-22	13.8	14.1	-0.32	16.6	16.8	-0.18
Cory Joseph	64	63	-0.53	1.02	-1.55	-0.26	-9	19	-28	14.0	14.2	-0.23	16.1	17.9	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.54,0.69,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.51,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.25,0.07,0.1,0.28,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.85,0.92,1	88.3%
MIA 103, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.41,0.46,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.98,1	86.5%
SAS 118, DAL 123	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.32,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.69,0.92,1	85.8%