NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	9.3 [125]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +39.0%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	2.6 [537]		LVP	Al Horford (BOS): -22.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.14	0.24	-0.01	11	71%	0.39	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Kyrie Irving	0.32	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.32	0.28	0.08	0.03	21	78%	0.35	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jaylen Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	10	68%	0.19	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05
Daniel Theis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	33%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.07	-0.01	11	54%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Semi Ojeleye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	6	17%	-0.10	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.3	0.30	0.02	0.31	0.03	8	55%	0.32	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	10	58%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.01	9	35%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.09
Brandon Paul	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.09	-0.13	0.02	20	61%	0.13	2	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	9	68%	0.08	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.3	28.8	14.0	28.3	4.3	29.9	133.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -4.1%

SAS +10.3%

SAS +49.3%

BOS -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	14.7	109.7	111.7	107.5
season	15.1	15.5		106.4	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.1	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.7	13.9	16.5	14.2	14.8
SAS	17.2	14.3	16.2	16.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	28	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-7	11	15.5	14.5	1.06	16.2	15.9	0.27
Jaylen Brown	56	58	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.37	14	-17	31	14.6	15.1	-0.52	17.5	13.6	3.96
Semi Ojeleye	15	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	1	-5	16.2	14.5	1.67	13.8	16.4	-2.64
Marcus Smart	44	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.13	-9	6	-15	14.5	15.1	-0.56	14.4	17.5	-3.07
Al Horford	65	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-11	19	14.3	15.9	-1.57	17.3	12.7	4.57
Kyrie Irving	67	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.45	8	-11	19	14.2	16.2	-1.99	17.3	12.7	4.63
Marcus Morris	50	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	4	-11	15.6	13.8	1.78	15.1	17.0	-1.92
Daniel Theis	24	25	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	8	-19	15.1	14.7	0.39	12.7	17.2	-4.52
Terry Rozier	48	46	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.34	-11	8	-19	14.9	14.7	0.16	14.6	17.4	-2.81
Jayson Tatum	68	69	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.56	-7	4	-11	14.8	14.8	-0.06	16.5	14.7	1.80

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryn Forbes	70	69	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.30	21	-18	39	14.9	19.2	-4.25	15.1	13.9	1.24
Manu Ginobili	50	49	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-9	21	15.1	17.1	-2.01	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Patty Mills	51	49	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	-4	11	16.3	15.6	0.69	14.8	14.8	-0.09
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	64	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.35	-3	6	-9	17.1	13.4	3.69	14.4	15.8	-1.40
Pau Gasol	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	3	-3	15.2	17.0	-1.85	15.1	14.4	0.76
Rudy Gay	57	55	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.53	-11	14	-25	17.2	14.2	2.94	14.2	15.7	-1.50
Brandon Paul	10	10	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	3	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.34	17.3	14.5	2.81
Dejounte Murray	1	2	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	0	3	4.0	16.1	-12.13	0.5	15.1	-14.61
Tony Parker	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.24	-7	10	-17	16.1	16.0	0.09	14.8	14.8	0.01
Davis Bertans	39	39	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.11	4	-1	5	15.9	16.0	-0.09	16.2	13.8	2.34
Danny Green	36	37	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	14	-25	16.7	15.6	1.13	14.7	14.9	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.48,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.27,1	91.0%
MIN 103, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.69,0.58,1	90.3%
PHI 87, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.78,0.8,0.71,0.78,0.42,1	90.0%